CHI beat ARI 4–3 in overtime. CHI also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Caleb Jones scored at 3:37 of overtime, moving CHI’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Jaxson Stauber allowed 1.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ARI–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:28 | ARI | Clayton Keller from Jakob Chychrun, Nick Schmaltz | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 12:34 | ARI | Nick Schmaltz from Clayton Keller, Barrett Hayton | 2–0 | 64% → 78% |
| P1 13:53 | CHI | Seth Jones from Boris Katchouk, Jake McCabe | 2–1 | 22% → 36% |
| P2 2:43 | CHI | Andreas Athanasiou from Sam Lafferty | 2–2 | 34% → 53% |
| P3 14:34 | CHI | Colin Blackwell from Andreas Athanasiou, Connor Murphy | 2–3 | 51% → 88% |
| P3 17:33 | ARI | Nick Bjugstad from Clayton Keller, Juuso Välimäki | 3–3 | 7% → 49% |
| OT 3:37 | CHI | Caleb Jones from Andreas Athanasiou, Sam Lafferty | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bjugstad C | 17:15 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.05 | +0.67 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 19:26 | 1 | 2 | +0.62 | −0.18 | +0.79 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 19:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.34 | +0.84 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jack McBain C | 12:13 | +0.06 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Travis Boyd C | 13:46 | +0.06 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 14:55 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 10:58 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 29:57 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.20 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Troy Stecher D | 19:41 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 16:22 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Zack Kassian R | 8:14 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Joshua Brown D | 14:58 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Välimäki D | 23:24 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.06 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 18:15 | −0.07 | +0.06 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 17:02 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Ritchie L | 13:41 | −0.38 | −0.06 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 18:44 | −0.44 | −0.21 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 18:08 | 1 | −0.46 | +0.08 | −0.50 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram G | 63:37 | −0.45 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Blackwell C | 13:24 | 1 | +1.05 | +0.03 | +0.83 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Andreas Athanasiou C | 16:10 | 1 | 2 | +0.58 | +0.27 | +0.34 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Seth Jones D | 26:23 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.07 | +0.55 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Caleb Jones D | 17:09 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.09 | +0.66 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.38 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Lafferty C | 17:15 | 2 | +0.16 | +0.27 | −0.10 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Taylor Raddysh R | 16:26 | +0.06 | +0.03 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Max Domi C | 16:56 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.10 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ian Mitchell D | 16:05 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 21:09 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reese Johnson C | 10:12 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 22:06 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 20:25 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.15 | −0.26 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Boris Katchouk L | 9:51 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Philipp Kurashev C | 16:56 | −0.15 | +0.20 | −0.36 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| MacKenzie Entwistle R | 10:05 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 19:50 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Johnson C | 19:31 | −0.25 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 17:05 | −0.27 | −0.19 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Stauber G | 63:30 | −1.04 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.