PIT beat COL 2–1 in overtime. PIT lost the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 4.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Kris Letang scored at 3:36 of overtime, moving PIT’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Casey DeSmith saved 3.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 10:21 | COL | Nathan MacKinnon from Bowen Byram, Samuel Girard | 1–0 | 47% → 68% |
| P3 16:22 |  PIT | Bryan Rust from Evgeni Malkin, Jason Zucker | 1–1 | 11% → 51% |
| OT 3:36 | PIT | Kris Letang from Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin | 1–2 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Newhook C | 16:18 | +0.30 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 24:21 | +0.09 | −0.13 | −0.06 | +0.04 | +0.05 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 26:03 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.14 | +0.13 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Erik Johnson D | 13:33 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 22:34 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brad Hunt D | 8:35 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 4:12 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 26:01 | −0.08 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 21:29 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Nieto L | 10:55 | −0.22 | +0.11 | −0.30 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 16:11 | −0.26 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 9:28 | −0.29 | −0.14 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Denis Malgin C | 7:11 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.31 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 22:44 | −0.32 | −0.25 | −0.13 | −0.03 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 13:10 | −0.34 | −0.02 | −0.31 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 22:03 | −0.58 | −0.30 | −0.26 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 26:34 | −0.59 | −0.13 | −0.53 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 19:50 | −0.65 | −0.04 | −0.59 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pavel Francouz G | 63:27 | +1.40 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Letang D | 27:21 | 1 | +1.13 | +0.42 | +0.71 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bryan Rust R | 16:03 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.13 | +0.52 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brian Dumoulin D | 25:23 | +0.26 | +0.34 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 20:11 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.45 | −0.16 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Rickard Rakell R | 18:26 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 20:07 | 2 | −0.01 | +0.47 | −0.30 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph D | 11:04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 11:45 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 21:47 | −0.07 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chad Ruhwedel D | 11:57 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Carter C | 10:53 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Archibald R | 9:53 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 10:20 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 13:08 | −0.20 | −0.06 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 25:11 | −0.25 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 14:14 | −0.26 | −0.10 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 16:54 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.08 | −0.41 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 20:26 | −1.12 | +0.21 | −1.31 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmith G | 63:36 | +3.26 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.