OTT beat MTL 5–4. OTT lost the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 3.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Brady Tkachuk scored at 18:42 of the third, moving OTT’s win probability from 50% to 94%. Jake Allen allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:57 |  OTT | Claude Giroux from Nikita Zaitsev, Thomas Chabot | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 3:49 | OTT | Tim Stützle from Mathieu Joseph, Brady Tkachuk | 2–0 | 63% → 75% |
| P1 13:20 | MTL | Kirby DachPP from Nick Suzuki, Mike Hoffman | 2–1 | 23% → 36% |
| P2 16:23 | OTT | Alex DeBrincatPP from Tim Stützle, Thomas Chabot | 3–1 | 72% → 87% |
| P2 19:55 | MTL | Mike HoffmanPP from Mike Matheson | 3–2 | 11% → 27% |
| P3 11:02 | MTL | Rafael Harvey-Pinard from Nick Suzuki, Josh Anderson | 3–3 | 19% → 52% |
| P3 12:14 | OTT | Tim StützlePP from Thomas Chabot, Drake Batherson | 4–3 | 50% → 83% |
| P3 14:16 | MTL | Rafael Harvey-Pinard from Josh Anderson, David Savard | 4–4 | 15% → 51% |
| P3 18:42 | OTT | Brady Tkachuk from Tim Stützle, Mathieu Joseph | 5–4 | 50% → 94% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Stützle C | 19:46 | 2 | 2 | +1.43 | −0.01 | +1.50 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Alex DeBrincat R | 16:10 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.06 | +0.39 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Claude Giroux R | 18:19 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.22 | +0.58 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Brady Tkachuk L | 17:48 | 1 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.05 | +0.29 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Derick Brassard C | 11:22 | +0.16 | +0.02 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 10:25 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 15:06 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.12 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Holden D | 15:14 | −0.10 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Motte C | 11:10 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 21:57 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shane Pinto C | 12:29 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 15:01 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 23:46 | 3 | −0.26 | +0.24 | −0.31 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Gambrell C | 10:58 | −0.28 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 14:40 | 2 | −0.36 | +0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Parker Kelly C | 12:16 | −0.41 | −0.18 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 22:22 | −0.46 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 23:08 | −0.49 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Forsberg G | 59:49 | −0.36 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Harvey-Pinard L | 18:49 | 2 | +1.42 | +0.27 | +1.13 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kirby Dach C | 22:17 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.08 | +0.45 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Hoffman C | 20:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.11 | +0.47 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jesse Ylonen R | 9:58 | +0.18 | +0.07 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Wideman D | 6:42 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 22:33 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.18 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Harris D | 18:21 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 18:34 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Pezzetta L | 9:55 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 19:00 | 2 | −0.02 | +0.39 | −0.41 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Christian Dvorak C | 15:12 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Belzile R | 12:42 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| David Savard D | 19:39 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Barron D | 12:19 | −0.08 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 22:50 | 2 | −0.10 | +0.38 | −0.79 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.08 | |
| Arber Xhekaj D | 17:33 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 14:28 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Rem Pitlick C | 16:29 | −0.25 | +0.04 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 58:48 | −1.42 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.