WPG beat STL 4–2. WPG also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Mark Scheifele scored at 9:32 of the third, moving WPG’s win probability from 20% to 52%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 14:36 | STL | Jake NeighboursPP from Torey Krug, Jordan Binnington | 1–0 | 48% → 70% |
| P3 2:02 | STL | Nikita Alexandrov from Josh Leivo, Jake Neighbours | 2–0 | 74% → 91% |
| P3 2:42 | WPG | Josh Morrissey from Saku Maenalanen, Neal Pionk | 2–1 | 9% → 26% |
| P3 9:32 | WPG | Mark Scheifele from Nikolaj Ehlers, Kyle Connor | 2–2 | 20% → 52% |
| P3 9:53 | WPG | Josh Morrissey from Morgan Barron, Saku Maenalanen | 2–3 | 52% → 83% |
| P3 19:36 | WPG | Mark ScheifeleEN from Blake Wheeler, Kyle Connor | 2–4 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Alexandrov C | 9:09 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.00 | +0.77 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Jake Neighbours L | 10:28 | 1 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.05 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Noel Acciari C | 20:48 | +0.03 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.06 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 20:48 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 17:40 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Torey Krug D | 16:54 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Calle Rosen D | 15:03 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 22:55 | −0.13 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Leivo L | 9:47 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.23 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Pitlick C | 11:30 | −0.20 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 17:36 | −0.21 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 15:29 | −0.21 | +0.04 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Brown C | 7:24 | −0.22 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 20:32 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 17:40 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 19:15 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 10:50 | −0.45 | −0.16 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 25:24 | −0.46 | −0.30 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 58:48 | +0.15 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Morrissey D | 27:27 | 2 | +1.83 | +0.19 | +1.64 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Scheifele C | 24:09 | 2 | +0.89 | +0.25 | +0.61 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 17:42 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.19 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.38 | +0.00 | |
| Neal Pionk D | 25:12 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.07 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Samberg D | 11:43 | +0.11 | +0.13 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Perfetti C | 12:40 | +0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Capobianco D | 11:40 | +0.08 | +0.16 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 17:25 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Wheeler R | 17:34 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Barron C | 16:56 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.12 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Gagner C | 5:19 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 17:36 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 9:06 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 19:41 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 19:53 | −0.25 | +0.17 | −0.40 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 23:38 | 2 | −0.36 | +0.19 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Saku Maenalanen R | 12:35 | 2 | −0.39 | +0.03 | −0.42 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Karson Kuhlman C | 6:40 | −0.41 | +0.09 | −0.49 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 60:00 | −0.06 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.