NYI beat VGK 2–1 in overtime. NYI lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 4.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Mathew Barzal scored at 4:28 of overtime, moving NYI’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Semyon Varlamov saved 3.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 3:52 |  NYI | Anders Lee from Kyle Palmieri, Brock Nelson | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 16:08 |  VGK | William Carrier from Chandler Stephenson, Phil Kessel | 1–1 | 24% → 47% |
| OT 4:28 | NYI | Mathew Barzal from Anthony Beauvillier, Adam Pelech | 1–2 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Carrier L | 14:48 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.37 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.38 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 19:06 | +0.36 | +0.45 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 22:53 | +0.34 | +0.29 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 25:55 | +0.17 | +0.36 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alec Martinez D | 18:36 | +0.14 | +0.21 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 20:15 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.60 | −0.48 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 17:29 | +0.09 | +0.23 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 16:09 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 20:08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Hutton D | 17:04 | −0.02 | +0.12 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 13:05 | −0.02 | +0.07 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 10:06 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 15:09 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Paul Cotter C | 17:28 | −0.28 | −0.04 | −0.20 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phil Kessel R | 15:27 | 1 | −0.33 | +0.40 | −0.73 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jack Eichel C | 19:38 | −0.35 | +0.34 | −0.73 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Brett Howden C | 11:55 | −0.37 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 16:33 | −0.43 | +0.02 | −0.46 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson G | 64:08 | +0.86 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anders Lee C | 15:19 | 1 | +0.28 | −0.10 | +0.39 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Mathew Barzal C | 20:07 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.07 | +0.35 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Pulock D | 23:30 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Bolduc D | 12:46 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aatu Räty C | 8:56 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 10:42 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho D | 16:56 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 9:53 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Bailey R | 12:27 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Parise L | 17:04 | −0.22 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 18:17 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.09 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Cizikas C | 17:13 | −0.25 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 19:32 | −0.29 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 17:50 | −0.31 | −0.23 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 26:41 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.49 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Palmieri C | 19:26 | 1 | −0.58 | −0.29 | −0.33 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 19:24 | 1 | −0.76 | −0.30 | −0.49 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Scott Mayfield D | 23:21 | −0.84 | −0.49 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov G | 64:28 | +3.38 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.