SJS beat PIT 6–4. SJS lost the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 4.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Logan Couture scored at 15:35 of the third, moving SJS’s win probability from 49% to 88%. Casey DeSmith allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:25 | SJS | Michael Eyssimont from Logan Couture, Marc-Edouard Vlasic | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 5:45 |  PIT | Evgeni MalkinPP from Rickard Rakell, Sidney Crosby | 1–1 | 38% → 53% |
| P1 12:55 | PIT | Sidney CrosbyPP from Evgeni Malkin, Jake Guentzel | 1–2 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 19:53 | SJS | Erik Karlsson from Alexander Barabanov, Steven Lorentz | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 4:54 | SJS | Noah Gregor from Logan Couture | 3–2 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 14:54 | PIT | Ryan PoehlingSH from Brian Dumoulin | 3–3 | 29% → 52% |
| P2 17:07 | SJS | Alexander Barabanov from Logan Couture, Matt Benning | 4–3 | 47% → 71% |
| P3 10:06 | PIT | Evgeni Malkin from Jeff Petry | 4–4 | 20% → 52% |
| P3 15:35 | SJS | Logan Couture from Alexander Barabanov, Marc-Edouard Vlasic | 5–4 | 49% → 88% |
| P3 19:50 | SJS | Logan CoutureEN from Erik Karlsson | 6–4 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Couture C | 16:25 | 2 | 3 | +0.93 | +0.14 | +0.21 | +0.59 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Alexander Barabanov L | 15:22 | 1 | 2 | +0.84 | +0.05 | +0.46 | +0.35 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Erik Karlsson D | 27:29 | 1 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.07 | +0.37 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jaycob Megna D | 22:12 | +0.13 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 15:56 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.16 | +0.36 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Eyssimont C | 14:20 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.18 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Benning D | 18:53 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 20:26 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.08 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonah Gadjovich L | 9:27 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 14:21 | 2 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Lorentz C | 13:44 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Timo Meier R | 20:29 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 15:42 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Oskar Lindblom L | 13:32 | −0.19 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 13:54 | −0.28 | −0.22 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jacob MacDonald D | 13:01 | −0.39 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 20:14 | −0.40 | −0.12 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeny Svechnikov L | 10:16 | −0.56 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.38 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kaapo Kahkonen G | 60:00 | +0.39 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Poehling C | 10:59 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.08 | +0.70 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 21:51 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.05 | +0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.38 | +0.06 |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 17:30 | 2 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.15 | +0.79 | +0.13 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Bryan Rust R | 20:17 | +0.04 | −0.06 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.38 | +0.00 | ||
| Chad Ruhwedel D | 13:09 | +0.04 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Carter C | 14:16 | +0.03 | +0.23 | −0.06 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 21:30 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.11 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kris Letang D | 25:01 | +0.02 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 15:12 | −0.04 | +0.23 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 13:55 | −0.04 | +0.16 | −0.16 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph D | 13:26 | −0.05 | +0.12 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 22:16 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drew O'Connor L | 7:07 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 18:59 | −0.10 | +0.05 | −0.10 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 8:22 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 18:10 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.11 | −0.17 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jason Zucker L | 14:14 | −0.35 | −0.12 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 21:53 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.03 | −0.28 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmith G | 57:53 | −1.62 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.