CAR beat SJS 5–4 in overtime. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Martin Necas scored at 0:55 of overtime, moving CAR’s win probability from 52% to 100%. James Reimer allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:10 | SJS | Oskar Lindblom from Evgeny Svechnikov, Steven Lorentz | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P1 17:33 |  CAR | Calvin de Haan from Dylan Coghlan, Jesperi Kotkaniemi | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P3 0:17 | CAR | Sebastian AhoPP from Stefan Noesen | 1–2 | 53% → 77% |
| P3 6:50 | SJS | Nick Bonino from Michael Eyssimont | 2–2 | 19% → 48% |
| P3 11:15 | SJS | Michael Eyssimont from Nico Sturm, Mario Ferraro | 3–2 | 50% → 81% |
| P3 18:08 | SJS | Mario FerraroEN from Michael Eyssimont | 4–2 | 92% → 100% |
| P3 18:23 | CAR | Sebastian Aho from Teuvo Teravainen, Jalen Chatfield | 4–3 | 0% → 6% |
| P3 19:48 | CAR | Martin NecasPP from Andrei Svechnikov, Brent Burns | 4–4 | 4% → 51% |
| OT 0:55 | CAR | Martin Necas from Andrei Svechnikov | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Eyssimont C | 15:53 | 1 | 2 | +1.00 | +0.13 | +0.87 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Oskar Lindblom L | 10:51 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.07 | +0.81 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nick Bonino C | 16:14 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.23 | +0.48 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Scott Harrington D | 12:23 | +0.04 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaycob Megna D | 23:36 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 21:24 | −0.02 | −0.16 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeny Svechnikov L | 9:21 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob MacDonald D | 15:38 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Benning D | 18:52 | −0.11 | −0.31 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 9:03 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 27:56 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Barabanov L | 14:44 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Labanc R | 20:01 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 13:00 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 21:35 | −0.29 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 18:40 | 1 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.38 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nico Sturm C | 13:37 | 1 | −0.70 | −0.20 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.38 | +0.05 | |
| Logan Couture C | 17:11 | −0.79 | −0.29 | −0.50 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 60:55 | −1.30 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Necas C | 17:55 | 2 | +1.43 | +0.21 | +1.25 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 18:59 | 2 | +1.30 | +0.48 | +0.83 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Calvin de Haan D | 13:21 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.07 | +0.86 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brent Burns D | 20:20 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 17:52 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jordan Staal C | 17:37 | +0.18 | +0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 17:20 | 2 | +0.08 | +0.36 | −0.51 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Stepan C | 7:27 | +0.05 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 18:05 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Stastny C | 8:21 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 8:57 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.13 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jesper Fast R | 17:51 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dylan Coghlan D | 12:05 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brady Skjei D | 28:44 | −0.14 | +0.38 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 15:15 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 26:45 | −0.21 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 17:51 | −0.24 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 15:30 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.04 | −0.29 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Antti Raanta G | 59:25 | −0.60 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.