TOR beat NYR 3–2 in overtime. TOR also won the expected-goals battle 4.0 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Mitch Marner scored at 0:19 of overtime, moving TOR’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:27 |  TOR | Pontus Holmberg from Joey Anderson, Alexander Kerfoot | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 2:09 |  NYR | Filip Chytil unassisted | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 6:31 | NYR | Filip Chytil from Kaapo Kakko, Alexis Lafrenière | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P3 15:49 | TOR | Timothy Liljegren from John Tavares, William Nylander | 2–2 | 12% → 51% |
| OT 0:19 | TOR | Mitch Marner from Timothy Liljegren | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Chytil C | 15:25 | 2 | +1.34 | −0.06 | +1.61 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Jake Leschyshyn C | 6:36 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Will Cuylle L | 5:49 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaapo Kakko R | 16:05 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Harpur D | 14:19 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 15:00 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ryan Lindgren D | 21:13 | −0.16 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 21:28 | −0.22 | −0.14 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 15:27 | −0.23 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Julien Gauthier R | 5:55 | −0.28 | +0.03 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 17:24 | −0.29 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 18:59 | −0.33 | −0.12 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 17:22 | −0.43 | −0.20 | −0.23 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 18:39 | −0.50 | −0.37 | −0.17 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 20:53 | −0.53 | −0.21 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 19:18 | −0.53 | −0.24 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 20:32 | −0.54 | −0.41 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fox D | 24:33 | −0.63 | −0.34 | −0.32 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 60:19 | +0.36 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Marner R | 24:25 | 1 | +1.30 | +0.57 | +0.63 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Timothy Liljegren D | 21:55 | 1 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.35 | +0.78 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Pontus Holmberg R | 6:31 | 1 | +0.82 | −0.03 | +0.84 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Joey Anderson R | 4:57 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.38 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 28:15 | +0.34 | +0.39 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 20:57 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.40 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Holl D | 23:10 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 15:56 | +0.04 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Giordano D | 16:41 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 16:22 | −0.04 | +0.08 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 15:32 | −0.06 | +0.15 | −0.40 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 21:53 | −0.07 | +0.47 | −0.60 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jordie Benn D | 10:53 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 11:20 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bobby McMann C | 10:33 | −0.13 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 14:23 | −0.17 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| David Kampf C | 14:24 | −0.28 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| John Tavares C | 19:14 | 1 | −0.78 | +0.43 | −1.23 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Samsonov G | 59:55 | +0.57 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.