DET beat SJS 3–2 in overtime. DET also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Andrew Copp scored at 0:25 of overtime, moving DET’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 2:17 |  DET | Adam Erne from Dylan Larkin, Filip Hronek | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 7:58 | SJS | Timo Meier from Erik Karlsson, Tomas Hertl | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 16:29 | DET | Michael Rasmussen unassisted | 1–2 | 53% → 76% |
| P2 19:53 | SJS | Logan Couture from Erik Karlsson, Jaycob Megna | 2–2 | 23% → 48% |
| OT 0:25 | DET | Andrew Copp from Michael Rasmussen | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timo Meier R | 18:46 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.17 | +0.66 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 19:35 | +0.17 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Couture C | 17:28 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.56 | +0.65 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Kevin Labanc R | 14:30 | +0.05 | +0.13 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaycob Megna D | 21:38 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.08 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Bonino C | 13:35 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Cicek D | 14:40 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Benning D | 20:36 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 10:57 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 14:16 | −0.11 | +0.16 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 11:41 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 17:17 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 17:21 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Oskar Lindblom L | 11:47 | −0.26 | +0.25 | −0.50 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Eyssimont C | 13:00 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matt Nieto L | 14:33 | −0.38 | −0.09 | −0.28 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 25:02 | 2 | −0.54 | −0.43 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Barabanov L | 18:33 | −0.82 | −0.62 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 60:25 | +0.71 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Copp C | 19:25 | 1 | +1.16 | +0.69 | +0.23 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Michael Rasmussen C | 16:19 | 1 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.56 | +0.05 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 |
| Filip Hronek D | 21:21 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.70 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Erne L | 10:13 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.06 | +0.63 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 11:28 | +0.08 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lucas Raymond L | 16:09 | +0.06 | +0.13 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dominik Kubalik L | 12:50 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 20:05 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 20:11 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Perron L | 16:48 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 15:07 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 10:47 | −0.20 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Moritz Seider D | 23:26 | −0.22 | −0.13 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonatan Berggren R | 17:37 | −0.25 | +0.06 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 19:15 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.07 | −0.44 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Joe Veleno C | 13:55 | −0.34 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Jordan Oesterle D | 15:46 | −0.42 | −0.19 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robby Fabbri C | 16:33 | −0.50 | −0.18 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ville Husso G | 60:25 | +0.76 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.