Tonight: 3 gamesModel estimates, not official NHL statistics
puckmodel
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2023-01-24 · Wells Fargo Center

4 – 3Final/OT

LAK beat PHI 4–3 in overtime. LAK also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Kevin Fiala scored at 1:09 of overtime, moving LAK’s win probability from 48% to 100%.

Shots on goal
38 – 31
Expected goals
3.5 – 2.4
xG share
LAK 60%
Home-ice start
PHI 53%

Win probability

The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.

LAK goalPHI goal

Expected goals

Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.

LAKPHI

Three stars, by the model

Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.

LAK
Anze Kopitar
2 G, 0 A · 20:46 TOI
On-ice +0.27 · Finishing +0.99 · Faceoffs +0.08
+1.37
LAK
Samuel Fagemo
1 G, 0 A · 6:48 TOI
Finishing +0.80
+0.82
LAK
1 G, 1 A · 18:46 TOI
On-ice +0.09 · Finishing +0.61
+0.70

Rough nights

PHI
0 G, 0 A · 18:20 TOI
On-ice −0.27 · Finishing −0.22 · Penalties −0.19
−0.73
PHI
61:09 TOI
GSAx −0.65
−0.65
PHI
0 G, 0 A · 19:09 TOI
On-ice −0.27 · Finishing −0.08 · Penalties −0.19
−0.56

Scoring

Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.

TimeTeamGoalLAK–PHIWin prob.
P1 5:50 PHIJames van Riemsdyk
from Owen Tippett, Ivan Provorov
0–154% → 69%
P1 9:21 LAKAnze KopitarPP
from Kevin Fiala, Drew Doughty
1–131% → 47%
P1 10:27 PHIWade Allison
from Kevin Hayes, Ivan Provorov
1–253% → 70%
P1 11:40 LAKAnze Kopitar
from Adrian Kempe, Quinton Byfield
2–230% → 47%
P2 10:37 PHIRasmus Ristolainen
from James van Riemsdyk, Morgan Frost
2–353% → 74%
P2 18:36 LAKSamuel Fagemo
from Blake Lizotte
3–324% → 47%
OT 1:09 LAKKevin Fiala
unassisted
4–348% → 100%

Every player

Show both lineups

LAK

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
Anze Kopitar C20:462+1.37+0.27+0.99+0.01+0.01+0.00+0.08
Samuel Fagemo L6:481+0.82+0.03+0.80−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Kevin Fiala L18:4611+0.70+0.09+0.61+0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
Drew Doughty D27:181+0.36+0.16+0.01−0.01+0.01+0.19+0.00
Alexander Edler D16:22+0.24+0.29−0.05+0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
Blake Lizotte C14:271+0.22+0.04−0.00−0.03−0.00+0.19+0.02
Sean Walker D16:43+0.15+0.20−0.02−0.01−0.02+0.00+0.00
Sean Durzi D15:10+0.11−0.02−0.05+0.01−0.02+0.19+0.00
Mikey Anderson D21:46+0.02+0.01+0.01−0.01+0.03+0.00+0.00
Matt Roy D16:00−0.01−0.01−0.02+0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Alex Turcotte C6:56−0.03−0.02−0.00−0.01+0.01+0.00−0.01
Viktor Arvidsson L18:45−0.06−0.02−0.22+0.00−0.01+0.19−0.01
Rasmus Kupari C8:50−0.11+0.03−0.16−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.03
Quinton Byfield R15:291−0.14+0.18−0.33−0.00+0.01+0.00+0.01
Alex Iafallo L19:59−0.19−0.06−0.11−0.02+0.00+0.00+0.00
Adrian Kempe R17:181−0.24+0.18−0.22−0.00+0.00−0.19+0.00
Jaret Anderson-Dolan C16:16−0.39−0.08−0.30−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
Phillip Danault C20:06−0.45+0.12−0.44−0.02+0.00−0.19+0.08
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Pheonix Copley G60:51−0.42

PHI

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
Rasmus Ristolainen D15:281+0.55−0.08+0.82−0.01+0.01−0.19+0.00
Wade Allison R12:031+0.45+0.06+0.41−0.03+0.02+0.00+0.00
James van Riemsdyk L13:2311+0.23−0.01+0.64−0.01−0.00−0.38+0.00
Ivan Provorov D25:162+0.16+0.17+0.01−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00
Scott Laughton C19:00+0.05+0.04−0.12−0.01+0.00+0.19−0.05
Patrick Brown C10:55−0.02−0.00−0.00−0.01−0.01+0.00+0.01
Noah Cates L20:14−0.03−0.06−0.05−0.01+0.01+0.19−0.11
Cam York D23:26−0.07+0.05−0.12−0.00−0.00+0.00+0.00
Kevin Hayes R16:481−0.10−0.01−0.11+0.02−0.00+0.00+0.01
Joel Farabee L17:53−0.14−0.11−0.01−0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00
Owen Tippett R12:521−0.16−0.04−0.11−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00
Nick Seeler D15:57−0.16−0.12−0.05−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00
Zack MacEwen C8:34−0.23−0.08−0.14−0.01+0.00+0.00−0.01
Morgan Frost C15:171−0.29−0.09−0.18−0.00+0.01+0.00−0.03
Travis Konecny R20:10−0.38−0.31−0.02−0.01−0.01+0.00−0.02
Nicolas Deslauriers L10:38−0.54−0.09−0.24−0.02−0.00−0.19+0.00
Travis Sanheim D19:09−0.56−0.27−0.08+0.00−0.02−0.19+0.00
Tony DeAngelo D18:20−0.73−0.27−0.22+0.01−0.05−0.19+0.00
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Carter Hart G61:09−0.65

Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.