CGY beat CBJ 4–3 in overtime. CGY also won the expected-goals battle 4.6 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Dillon Dube scored at 2:25 of overtime, moving CGY’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Joonas Korpisalo saved 1.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:18 | CGY | Walker Duehr from MacKenzie Weegar | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 1:32 | CGY | Nazem Kadri from Nikita Zadorov, Andrew Mangiapane | 0–2 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 9:04 | CBJ | Kirill MarchenkoPP from Johnny Gaudreau, Patrik Laine | 1–2 | 12% → 26% |
| P2 9:53 | CBJ | Patrik LainePP from Johnny Gaudreau, Adam Boqvist | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 16:17 | CGY | Andrew Mangiapane from Mikael Backlund, Blake Coleman | 2–3 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 4:34 | CBJ | Boone Jenner from Patrik Laine, Erik Gudbranson | 3–3 | 21% → 48% |
| OT 2:25 | CGY | Dillon Dube from Andrew Mangiapane | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrik Laine L | 22:11 | 1 | 2 | +0.37 | −0.13 | +0.33 | +0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Boone Jenner C | 20:46 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.08 | +0.14 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Kirill Marchenko R | 14:13 | 1 | +0.22 | −0.11 | +0.34 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tim Berni D | 17:58 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 22:54 | 2 | −0.05 | −0.17 | −0.28 | +0.41 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kent Johnson C | 16:40 | −0.08 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Peeke D | 19:48 | −0.11 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 4:37 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Boqvist D | 17:28 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Gudbranson D | 22:34 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Emil Bemstrom C | 6:18 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 9:55 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 13:57 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 20:41 | −0.25 | −0.41 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 21:37 | −0.29 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 16:30 | −0.31 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Nick Blankenburg D | 17:36 | −0.36 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 15:32 | −0.53 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joonas Korpisalo G | 62:25 | +1.42 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 18:01 | 1 | 2 | +0.89 | +0.33 | +0.11 | +0.25 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Nikita Zadorov D | 26:46 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.61 | −0.06 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Walker Duehr R | 8:18 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.05 | +0.41 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 19:21 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.25 | +0.11 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 21:19 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.20 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Stone D | 15:43 | +0.07 | +0.15 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 16:35 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.23 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jakob Pelletier L | 7:36 | +0.04 | +0.20 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 20:07 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.29 | −0.40 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Milan Lucic L | 13:17 | −0.04 | +0.13 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 2:32 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 28:21 | −0.09 | +0.22 | −0.17 | −0.17 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dillon Dube C | 15:50 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.03 | +0.26 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Elias Lindholm C | 19:14 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.06 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 24:02 | −0.16 | +0.08 | −0.08 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 17:40 | −0.22 | +0.08 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 15:36 | −0.24 | +0.03 | −0.19 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 9:30 | −0.31 | +0.02 | −0.14 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 62:25 | −0.37 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.