BUF beat DAL 3–2 in overtime. BUF lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 3.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Owen Power scored at 0:56 of overtime, moving BUF’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Craig Anderson saved 1.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:48 |  DAL | Jamie BennPP from Roope Hintz, Joe Pavelski | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 11:29 | BUF | Rasmus Dahlin from Casey Mittelstadt | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P3 1:44 | BUF | Victor Olofsson from Jeff Skinner, Tage Thompson | 2–1 | 48% → 74% |
| P3 5:58 | DAL | Jason Robertson from Joe Pavelski | 2–2 | 24% → 52% |
| OT 0:56 | BUF | Owen Power from Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Olofsson R | 16:58 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.04 | +0.68 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 24:24 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.07 | +0.73 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Owen Power D | 22:51 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.01 | +0.59 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Peyton Krebs C | 14:33 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 17:05 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 13:28 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 13:32 | −0.08 | +0.07 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 22:24 | −0.08 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 19:46 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Bryson D | 12:49 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 21:12 | 2 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Henri Jokiharju D | 19:26 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 20:51 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.21 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Kyle Okposo R | 15:15 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 13:14 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 11:14 | −0.28 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 12:40 | −0.43 | −0.40 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 10:41 | −0.45 | −0.27 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Craig Anderson G | 60:56 | +1.76 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Robertson L | 18:55 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.15 | +0.71 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie Benn L | 14:28 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.04 | +0.33 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Esa Lindell D | 19:31 | +0.32 | +0.27 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 19:12 | +0.31 | +0.22 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jani Hakanpää D | 22:08 | +0.21 | +0.23 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 12:47 | +0.21 | +0.22 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Ty Dellandrea C | 15:31 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 14:37 | −0.01 | +0.24 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Joel Hanley D | 15:04 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 25:59 | −0.04 | +0.13 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Seguin C | 14:42 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 12:34 | −0.17 | +0.14 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Johnston C | 15:00 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 18:58 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Denis Gurianov R | 12:00 | −0.21 | +0.12 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Pavelski C | 18:48 | 2 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.29 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Roope Hintz C | 14:38 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.09 | |
| Joel Kiviranta L | 11:56 | −0.46 | +0.22 | −0.68 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 60:56 | −1.01 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.