Tonight: 3 gamesModel estimates, not official NHL statistics
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2023-01-22 · United Center

2 – 1Final

LAK beat CHI 2–1. LAK also won the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 1.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jaret Anderson-Dolan scored at 9:29 of the first, moving LAK’s win probability from 47% to 63%.

Shots on goal
27 – 19
Expected goals
2.8 – 1.6
xG share
LAK 64%
Home-ice start
CHI 53%

Win probability

The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.

LAK goalCHI goal

Expected goals

Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.

LAKCHI

Three stars, by the model

Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.

LAK
Jaret Anderson-Dolan
2 G, 0 A · 15:14 TOI
On-ice +0.19 · Finishing +1.19
+1.36
CHI
58:04 TOI
GSAx +0.74
+0.74
LAK
Pheonix Copley
60:00 TOI
GSAx +0.69
+0.69

Rough nights

CHI
Max Domi
0 G, 1 A · 20:33 TOI
On-ice −0.28 · Finishing −0.45
−0.68
CHI
Jonathan Toews
0 G, 0 A · 18:35 TOI
On-ice −0.18 · Finishing −0.33
−0.50
LAK
0 G, 0 A · 13:47 TOI
On-ice +0.07 · Finishing −0.44
−0.38

Scoring

Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.

TimeTeamGoalLAK–CHIWin prob.
P1 9:29 LAKJaret Anderson-Dolan
from Kevin Fiala, Blake Lizotte
1–047% → 63%
P2 6:07 LAKJaret Anderson-Dolan
from Kevin Fiala, Drew Doughty
2–067% → 83%
P3 16:45 CHIIan Mitchell
from Max Domi, Andreas Athanasiou
2–11% → 10%

Every player

Show both lineups

LAK

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
Jaret Anderson-Dolan C15:142+1.36+0.19+1.19−0.01+0.00+0.00−0.01
Mikey Anderson D25:04+0.31+0.29+0.01−0.02+0.03+0.00+0.00
Phillip Danault C20:59+0.16+0.19−0.00−0.02+0.00+0.00−0.01
Tobias Bjornfot D13:11+0.11+0.12+0.01−0.02−0.01+0.00+0.00
Anze Kopitar C17:17+0.06+0.07−0.00+0.01+0.01+0.00−0.03
Quinton Byfield R14:00+0.04+0.03−0.00+0.00+0.01+0.00+0.00
Sean Durzi D20:14+0.01+0.08−0.04+0.00−0.02+0.00+0.00
Drew Doughty D25:061−0.01+0.18+0.01−0.01+0.01−0.19+0.00
Blake Lizotte C13:561−0.02+0.19−0.17−0.02−0.00+0.00−0.01
Matt Roy D20:31−0.03+0.15+0.01+0.01+0.00−0.19+0.00
Sean Walker D16:12−0.05+0.10−0.12−0.01−0.02+0.00+0.00
Samuel Fagemo L8:07−0.05+0.03−0.08−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Viktor Arvidsson L20:28−0.06+0.14−0.20+0.01−0.01+0.00−0.01
Rasmus Kupari C8:49−0.07+0.03−0.07−0.01+0.00+0.00−0.02
Alex Turcotte C8:10−0.11+0.05−0.15−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Alex Iafallo L19:12−0.11+0.11−0.22−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Kevin Fiala L15:202−0.22+0.19−0.41+0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
Adrian Kempe R13:47−0.38+0.07−0.44−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Pheonix Copley G60:00+0.69

CHI

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
Ian Mitchell D16:251+0.47−0.27+0.78−0.00−0.04+0.00+0.00
Caleb Jones D18:00+0.02−0.16+0.01−0.01−0.01+0.19+0.00
Connor Murphy D18:05−0.00−0.02+0.01+0.00+0.01+0.00+0.00
Jake McCabe D20:39−0.01−0.00−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Jason Dickinson C14:31−0.02−0.03−0.00−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.01
Tyler Johnson C4:07−0.09−0.08−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Colin Blackwell C12:13−0.09−0.06−0.21−0.01+0.01+0.19+0.00
Jack Johnson D19:35−0.09−0.05−0.02−0.02+0.01+0.00+0.00
MacKenzie Entwistle R9:24−0.09−0.08−0.00−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.01
Sam Lafferty C16:13−0.18−0.05−0.16−0.02+0.01+0.00+0.04
Taylor Raddysh R19:49−0.19−0.20−0.00−0.01+0.02+0.00+0.00
Reese Johnson C9:10−0.19−0.06−0.13−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Andreas Athanasiou C16:401−0.20−0.10−0.09−0.01−0.02+0.00+0.01
Seth Jones D24:45−0.21−0.15−0.03−0.03−0.01+0.00+0.00
Patrick Kane R22:41−0.23−0.25−0.00+0.05−0.03+0.00+0.00
Philipp Kurashev C18:31−0.25−0.20−0.05−0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Jonathan Toews C18:35−0.50−0.18−0.33+0.01−0.01+0.00+0.01
Max Domi C20:331−0.68−0.28−0.45+0.03+0.00+0.00+0.01
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Petr Mrazek G58:04+0.74

Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.