MTL beat TOR 3–2 in overtime. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 4.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Rem Pitlick scored at 2:14 of overtime, moving MTL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Samuel Montembeault saved 2.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:53 | TOR | Mark Giordano from William Nylander, Auston Matthews | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 17:30 | TOR | Calle Jarnkrok from Conor Timmins, Mitch Marner | 2–0 | 65% → 79% |
| P2 1:46 | MTL | Josh Anderson from Nick Suzuki, Rem Pitlick | 2–1 | 19% → 34% |
| P2 13:35 | MTL | Rafael Harvey-Pinard from Michael Pezzetta, Alex Belzile | 2–2 | 30% → 53% |
| OT 2:14 | MTL | Rem Pitlick from Mike Hoffman, David Savard | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Giordano D | 20:12 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.04 | +0.79 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 13:40 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.04 | +0.75 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Justin Holl D | 23:45 | +0.20 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby McMann C | 12:04 | +0.18 | +0.20 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timothy Liljegren D | 20:22 | +0.13 | +0.15 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 12:18 | +0.06 | +0.04 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Wayne Simmonds R | 6:45 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 15:10 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Kampf C | 19:09 | −0.06 | +0.32 | −0.38 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 12:04 | −0.07 | +0.21 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 24:51 | −0.10 | +0.10 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 8:51 | −0.10 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 16:25 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 19:51 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.07 | −0.39 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Rasmus Sandin D | 15:10 | −0.38 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 23:04 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.03 | −0.49 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Bunting L | 13:54 | −0.50 | −0.05 | −0.44 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 19:26 | 1 | −0.95 | −0.03 | −0.72 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Samsonov G | 61:55 | +0.41 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rem Pitlick C | 15:29 | 1 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.13 | +0.83 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Rafael Harvey-Pinard L | 13:48 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.05 | +0.56 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 18:20 | 1 | +0.42 | −0.03 | +0.31 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Joel Edmundson D | 15:37 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| David Savard D | 23:13 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.16 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 10:46 | +0.05 | +0.09 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Belzile R | 10:35 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Michael Pezzetta L | 11:05 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.09 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesse Ylonen R | 14:43 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 12:26 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 19:43 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.08 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Barron D | 15:47 | −0.16 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 23:56 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Harris D | 11:32 | −0.30 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 25:39 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.05 | −0.22 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Kirby Dach C | 22:49 | −0.67 | +0.13 | −0.59 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 15:49 | −0.75 | −0.28 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 19:50 | −0.77 | −0.35 | −0.45 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 61:49 | +2.06 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.