BUF beat NYI 3–2 in overtime. BUF also won the expected-goals battle 4.3 to 2.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Dylan Cozens scored at 0:12 of overtime, moving BUF’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:19 |  NYI | Brock Nelson from Anthony Beauvillier, Josh Bailey | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 8:26 |  BUF | Alex Tuch from Rasmus Dahlin, Jeff Skinner | 1–1 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 18:30 | NYI | Matt Martin from Casey Cizikas | 2–1 | 47% → 72% |
| P3 9:32 | BUF | Victor Olofsson from Casey Mittelstadt, Tyson Jost | 2–2 | 20% → 52% |
| OT 0:12 | BUF | Dylan Cozens from Rasmus Dahlin, Tage Thompson | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Martin L | 15:02 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.12 | +0.61 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 18:13 | 1 | +0.30 | −0.03 | +0.32 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 10:21 | +0.15 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dennis Cholowski D | 11:35 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 5:47 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 8:49 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 15:36 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 14:07 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 18:46 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 23:25 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Bailey R | 17:54 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Sebastian Aho D | 22:42 | −0.21 | +0.06 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 16:32 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.13 | −0.34 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Zach Parise L | 17:34 | −0.30 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 21:37 | −0.31 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 21:34 | −0.34 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 17:03 | 1 | −0.44 | −0.09 | −0.36 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 17:59 | −0.86 | −0.41 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 60:12 | +0.92 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cozens C | 12:55 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.27 | +0.58 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Victor Olofsson R | 15:22 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.12 | +0.68 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 18:53 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.01 | +0.55 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Bryson D | 10:49 | +0.23 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 23:31 | +0.18 | +0.17 | −0.04 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 13:20 | +0.06 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 19:27 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.16 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| JJ Peterka R | 13:57 | −0.02 | +0.10 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 12:48 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 19:40 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Power D | 21:28 | −0.04 | +0.19 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 12:57 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.13 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 15:22 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.14 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 18:39 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.03 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Kyle Okposo R | 15:09 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 25:12 | 2 | −0.27 | +0.17 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Peyton Krebs C | 15:55 | −0.30 | −0.05 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 13:43 | −0.40 | +0.12 | −0.52 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 59:41 | +0.51 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.