CHI beat BUF 4–3 in overtime. CHI lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Seth Jones scored at 2:24 of overtime, moving CHI’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Craig Anderson allowed 1.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:41 | CHI | Connor Murphy from Philipp Kurashev, Jonathan Toews | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 12:15 | BUF | Victor Olofsson from Tyson Jost, Casey Mittelstadt | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 19:53 | BUF | Tage Thompson from Jeff Skinner, Alex Tuch | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 6:21 | BUF | Peyton KrebsSH unassisted | 3–1 | 67% → 82% |
| P3 1:34 | CHI | Philipp Kurashev from Seth Jones, Taylor Raddysh | 3–2 | 10% → 27% |
| P3 19:04 | CHI | Seth JonesPP from Philipp Kurashev, Tyler Johnson | 3–3 | 6% → 50% |
| OT 2:24 | CHI | Seth Jones from Tyler Johnson | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Krebs C | 15:00 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.03 | +0.80 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Victor Olofsson R | 16:38 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.03 | +0.60 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 17:48 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.06 | +0.39 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Henri Jokiharju D | 23:23 | +0.20 | +0.27 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Power D | 25:14 | +0.18 | +0.23 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 12:42 | +0.10 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 14:06 | +0.09 | +0.14 | −0.27 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 14:08 | +0.07 | +0.15 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 13:06 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 15:11 | −0.08 | +0.13 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 17:39 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.05 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 21:20 | −0.09 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 14:45 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 15:55 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.21 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 14:26 | −0.14 | +0.08 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 15:42 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Kyle Okposo R | 15:36 | −0.26 | −0.03 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 22:33 | −0.51 | −0.19 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Craig Anderson G | 62:24 | −1.13 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Jones D | 23:52 | 2 | 1 | +1.60 | +0.16 | +1.49 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Philipp Kurashev C | 20:25 | 1 | 2 | +0.79 | +0.11 | +0.70 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Connor Murphy D | 20:29 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.05 | +0.82 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Toews C | 17:54 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | |
| Jake McCabe D | 20:28 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Athanasiou C | 14:58 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Blackwell C | 8:59 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Caleb Jones D | 17:38 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reese Johnson C | 8:30 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| MacKenzie Entwistle R | 7:16 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 15:47 | −0.14 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Isaak Phillips D | 18:33 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Lafferty C | 17:56 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.22 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 19:13 | −0.32 | −0.16 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 18:40 | −0.33 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 19:05 | −0.39 | −0.07 | −0.34 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Taylor Raddysh R | 16:35 | 1 | −0.46 | +0.01 | −0.48 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Johnson C | 17:35 | 2 | −0.58 | −0.04 | −0.53 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Petr Mrazek G | 61:43 | +0.10 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.