TOR beat FLA 5–4 in overtime. TOR also won the expected-goals battle 4.0 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: William Nylander scored at 1:53 of overtime, moving TOR’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Matt Murray allowed 2.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:52 |  FLA | Carter Verhaeghe from Aaron Ekblad | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 2:38 | TOR | Dryden Hunt from Morgan Rielly, Zachary Aston-Reese | 1–1 | 38% → 53% |
| P1 12:34 | FLA | Anton LundellSH from Aleksander Barkov | 2–1 | 46% → 63% |
| P1 15:10 | TOR | Alexander KerfootPP from Calle Jarnkrok, Timothy Liljegren | 2–2 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 18:04 | FLA | Joshua Mahura from Radko Gudas, Grigori Denisenko | 3–2 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 1:41 | FLA | Aleksander BarkovPP from Brandon Montour, Sam Reinhart | 4–2 | 67% → 81% |
| P2 19:57 | TOR | Auston MatthewsPP from William Nylander, Mitch Marner | 4–3 | 11% → 27% |
| P3 5:59 | TOR | William Nylander from Mitch Marner, Mark Giordano | 4–4 | 24% → 52% |
| OT 1:53 | TOR | William Nylander from Conor Timmins, John Tavares | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Mahura D | 14:47 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.15 | +0.92 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Aleksander Barkov C | 21:28 | 1 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.05 | +0.60 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.07 |
| Anton Lundell C | 17:56 | 1 | +0.43 | −0.09 | +0.52 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marc Staal D | 17:07 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 17:30 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.15 | +0.23 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 20:36 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Givani Smith R | 6:19 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 14:35 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Grigori Denisenko L | 9:21 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eric Staal C | 12:15 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 26:23 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Montour D | 23:00 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Cousins C | 10:01 | −0.32 | −0.15 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 5:40 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 19:20 | −0.40 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 18:15 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.41 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Radko Gudas D | 16:37 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.29 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Gustav Forsling D | 22:54 | −0.58 | −0.26 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 61:53 | −0.62 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Nylander R | 20:19 | 2 | 1 | +1.62 | +0.11 | +1.34 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Dryden Hunt L | 5:45 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.09 | +0.72 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 13:52 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.08 | +0.58 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 21:32 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.01 | +0.40 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Pierre Engvall L | 14:28 | +0.23 | +0.19 | −0.34 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.38 | +0.01 | ||
| Mark Giordano D | 19:20 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Timothy Liljegren D | 20:59 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.37 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 24:44 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.19 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 17:45 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.09 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Jordie Benn D | 13:56 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Holl D | 18:31 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 21:26 | 2 | +0.02 | +0.14 | −0.00 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Timmins D | 14:21 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.14 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Bunting L | 16:08 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 11:20 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.12 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Kampf C | 16:26 | −0.28 | +0.13 | −0.41 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| John Tavares C | 17:58 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.05 | −0.72 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.38 | +0.08 | |
| Bobby McMann C | 9:13 | −0.34 | +0.15 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Samsonov G | 40:12 | +1.45 |
| Matt Murray G | 21:41 | −2.89 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.