BUF beat NSH 5–3. Expected goals were close to even (BUF 3.6, NSH 3.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Kyle Okposo scored short-handed at 6:43 of the third, moving BUF’s win probability from 47% to 76%. Juuse Saros allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:37 | BUF | Jeff Skinner from Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 15:23 |  NSH | Roman JosiPP from Ryan Johansen, Juuso Parssinen | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 2:05 | BUF | Dylan Cozens from JJ Peterka, Jack Quinn | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 8:58 | BUF | Victor OlofssonPP from Owen Power, Casey Mittelstadt | 3–1 | 69% → 84% |
| P2 15:10 | NSH | Jeremy Lauzon from Cody Glass, Colton Sissons | 3–2 | 13% → 30% |
| P2 15:50 | NSH | Ryan Johansen from Dante Fabbro, Mattias Ekholm | 3–3 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 6:43 | BUF | Kyle OkposoSH from Ilya Lyubushkin, Mattias Samuelsson | 4–3 | 47% → 76% |
| P3 16:49 | BUF | Jack Quinn unassisted | 5–3 | 90% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Skinner L | 17:46 | 1 | +0.99 | −0.00 | +0.68 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.38 | −0.03 | |
| Jack Quinn R | 12:22 | 1 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.08 | +0.70 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Kyle Okposo R | 12:00 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.02 | +0.79 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Olofsson R | 17:20 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.03 | +0.79 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Cozens C | 14:38 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.08 | +0.54 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 21:33 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 25:21 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.14 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Bryson D | 9:28 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Asplund C | 8:57 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 21:48 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 8:41 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 20:31 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 11:27 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.06 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 17:51 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Tyson Jost C | 21:00 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 9:36 | 1 | −0.35 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.38 | +0.00 | |
| Owen Power D | 25:31 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.07 | −0.33 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 19:29 | 1 | −0.72 | +0.08 | −0.82 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 60:00 | +1.38 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 16:20 | 1 | +1.16 | +0.12 | +0.86 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Johansen C | 15:55 | 1 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.11 | +0.27 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 |
| Roman Josi D | 26:31 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.05 | +0.26 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 17:37 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 22:05 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Sissons C | 14:54 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Juuso Parssinen C | 17:02 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.16 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.38 | −0.04 | |
| Yakov Trenin C | 13:20 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cody Glass C | 11:19 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dante Fabbro D | 16:28 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McDonagh D | 22:31 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Duchene C | 19:16 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 15:57 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tommy Novak C | 11:26 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 9:51 | −0.25 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Roland McKeown D | 10:12 | −0.26 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 15:46 | −0.41 | +0.01 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 19:19 | −0.89 | +0.01 | −0.90 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 57:32 | −1.52 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.