CHI beat COL 3–2. CHI lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Taylor Raddysh scored at 6:36 of the third, moving CHI’s win probability from 52% to 80%. Petr Mrazek saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:24 | CHI | Sam Lafferty from Colin Blackwell | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 11:40 | COL | Evan Rodrigues from Nathan MacKinnon | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 1:44 | CHI | Andreas Athanasiou from Isaak Phillips, Petr Mrazek | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 11:47 | COL | Cale Makar from Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P3 6:36 | CHI | Taylor Raddysh from Tyler Johnson, Jonathan Toews | 2–3 | 52% → 80% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikko Rantanen R | 22:56 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.10 | −0.10 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.38 | −0.01 | |
| Cale Makar D | 27:31 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.14 | +0.37 | −0.06 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evan Rodrigues C | 25:13 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.19 | +0.22 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 24:39 | 2 | +0.10 | +0.13 | −0.38 | +0.31 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Andrew Cogliano C | 14:13 | +0.03 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 18:08 | +0.02 | +0.11 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob MacDonald D | 3:17 | −0.02 | +0.07 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 25:16 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.15 | +0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 23:30 | −0.07 | +0.06 | −0.11 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 21:44 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Kaut R | 7:10 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 17:07 | −0.12 | +0.07 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Darren Helm C | 5:34 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 12:02 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Hunt D | 9:49 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 21:25 | −0.24 | +0.10 | −0.25 | −0.10 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ben Meyers C | 8:13 | −0.27 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 8:18 | −0.31 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pavel Francouz G | 57:55 | −0.16 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaak Phillips D | 12:10 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.26 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Lafferty C | 16:53 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.05 | +0.35 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Colin Blackwell C | 10:06 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andreas Athanasiou C | 12:55 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.04 | +0.30 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Caleb Jones D | 13:09 | +0.19 | +0.17 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Raddysh R | 17:16 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.14 | −0.11 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lukas Reichel L | 12:32 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Reese Johnson C | 8:34 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| MacKenzie Entwistle R | 10:40 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 21:09 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Toews C | 20:04 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | |
| Philipp Kurashev C | 14:10 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 19:09 | −0.19 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 20:09 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Johnson C | 18:17 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.19 | −0.14 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Seth Jones D | 26:48 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 14:59 | −0.30 | −0.02 | −0.17 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 21:00 | −0.31 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Petr Mrazek G | 60:00 | +1.12 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.