MTL beat NSH 4–3. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 3.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Cole Caufield scored on the power play at 10:03 of the second, moving MTL’s win probability from 54% to 74%. Yaroslav Askarov allowed 1.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:35 | NSH | Nino Niederreiter from Roman Josi | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 13:30 |  MTL | Jake Evans from David Savard, Joel Edmundson | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 15:08 | MTL | Kirby Dach from Jesse Ylonen, Jonathan Drouin | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 0:12 | NSH | Filip Forsberg from Matt Duchene, Juuso Parssinen | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 10:03 | MTL | Cole CaufieldPP from Nick Suzuki, Jonathan Drouin | 2–3 | 54% → 74% |
| P3 6:15 | MTL | Cole CaufieldPP from Kirby Dach, Jonathan Drouin | 2–4 | 81% → 95% |
| P3 18:31 | NSH | Juuso ParssinenPP from Mattias Ekholm, Cody Glass | 3–4 | 0% → 5% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juuso Parssinen C | 16:38 | 1 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.19 | +0.71 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Filip Forsberg L | 19:12 | 1 | +0.43 | −0.11 | +0.34 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nino Niederreiter R | 14:42 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.06 | +0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 13:11 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 16:14 | +0.04 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 14:50 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tommy Novak C | 13:23 | +0.01 | −0.16 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 11:58 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 21:51 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.29 | −0.42 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexandre Carrier D | 12:23 | −0.13 | +0.11 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Duchene C | 19:03 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Ryan McDonagh D | 20:09 | −0.17 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 14:39 | −0.18 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Cody Glass C | 10:53 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.10 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Johansen C | 20:01 | −0.23 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 29:11 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.11 | −0.30 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yakov Trenin C | 14:33 | −0.41 | −0.01 | −0.42 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 13:36 | −0.47 | +0.09 | −0.55 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Yaroslav Askarov G | 57:50 | −1.19 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Caufield R | 17:57 | 2 | +1.25 | −0.11 | +1.37 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Evans C | 19:13 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.01 | +0.72 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Kirby Dach C | 17:47 | 1 | 1 | +0.42 | −0.16 | +0.60 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Jonathan Drouin L | 10:26 | 3 | +0.07 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 12:27 | +0.02 | +0.13 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Harris D | 21:23 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 16:33 | −0.01 | +0.11 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 22:12 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| David Savard D | 21:59 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Barron D | 12:43 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 15:15 | −0.12 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 16:03 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Jesse Ylonen R | 8:21 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Edmundson D | 23:51 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Dvorak C | 17:27 | −0.20 | +0.09 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Chris Wideman D | 8:09 | −0.26 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 17:25 | −0.31 | +0.04 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 12:49 | −0.38 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 60:00 | +0.91 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.