TOR beat NSH 2–1. Expected goals were close to even (NSH 2.9, TOR 2.6), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Mitch Marner scored on the power play at 18:45 of the third, moving TOR’s win probability from 52% to 95%. Matt Murray saved 2.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:54 |  TOR | John Tavares from William Nylander, Timothy Liljegren | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 1:46 |  NSH | Filip Forsberg from Juuso Parssinen, Matt Duchene | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P3 18:45 | TOR | Mitch MarnerPP from William Nylander, John Tavares | 1–2 | 52% → 95% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Forsberg L | 16:33 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.18 | +0.59 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Roman Josi D | 23:57 | +0.23 | +0.15 | −0.15 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 19:03 | +0.13 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 21:31 | +0.11 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 15:53 | +0.08 | +0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Duchene C | 19:03 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.20 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Colton Sissons C | 14:03 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 21:14 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Parssinen C | 14:14 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 20:37 | −0.09 | +0.23 | −0.34 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 14:03 | −0.13 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tommy Novak C | 9:32 | −0.20 | −0.06 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Ryan Johansen C | 14:08 | −0.20 | +0.33 | −0.54 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 14:11 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 17:12 | −0.27 | +0.30 | −0.56 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 10:19 | −0.39 | −0.06 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Cody Glass C | 12:30 | −0.58 | −0.05 | −0.51 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 14:01 | −0.63 | −0.00 | −0.43 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 58:49 | +1.06 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Tavares C | 20:10 | 1 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.04 | +0.67 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Mitch Marner R | 24:20 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.04 | +0.53 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Timmins D | 16:13 | +0.06 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 18:54 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Giordano D | 19:20 | −0.06 | −0.23 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pontus Holmberg R | 10:54 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Bobby McMann C | 11:02 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timothy Liljegren D | 16:08 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.34 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 5:31 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 16:08 | −0.19 | −0.09 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Dryden Hunt L | 6:28 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 23:21 | −0.29 | −0.06 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Holl D | 19:55 | −0.30 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Kampf C | 15:54 | −0.31 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| William Nylander R | 21:14 | 2 | −0.33 | +0.11 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Michael Bunting L | 20:38 | −0.35 | +0.02 | −0.37 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 14:05 | −0.36 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 15:45 | −0.47 | −0.26 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Murray G | 60:00 | +2.74 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.