SJS beat ARI 4–2. Expected goals were close to even (SJS 2.5, ARI 2.3), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Matt Nieto scored at 0:09 of the third, moving SJS’s win probability from 48% to 73%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:39 | SJS | Kevin Labanc from Tomas Hertl, Timo Meier | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 6:29 | ARI | Barrett Hayton from Shayne Gostisbehere, Jakob Chychrun | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 16:21 | ARI | Christian Fischer from Shayne Gostisbehere, Jakob Chychrun | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 5:59 | SJS | Nico Sturm from Nick Bonino, Oskar Lindblom | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P3 0:09 | SJS | Matt Nieto from Logan Couture, Alexander Barabanov | 3–2 | 48% → 73% |
| P3 14:10 | SJS | Jaycob Megna from Erik Karlsson, Kevin Labanc | 4–2 | 85% → 98% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Sturm C | 14:30 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.12 | +0.36 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jaycob Megna D | 21:06 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.09 | +0.41 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Benning D | 19:36 | +0.22 | +0.12 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 24:32 | 1 | +0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.27 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Labanc R | 11:18 | 1 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.03 | +0.37 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Matt Nieto L | 16:33 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.06 | +0.39 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Lorentz C | 14:16 | +0.17 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Couture C | 18:10 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.06 | −0.05 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 16:55 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.01 | −0.12 | +0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.09 | |
| Scott Harrington D | 15:14 | +0.07 | +0.21 | −0.00 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 21:12 | +0.03 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 15:00 | +0.02 | +0.14 | −0.01 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Barabanov L | 15:42 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oskar Lindblom L | 11:26 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.07 | −0.18 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonah Gadjovich L | 10:47 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 18:38 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.13 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Eyssimont C | 9:16 | −0.12 | +0.15 | −0.19 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 17:49 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.21 | −0.34 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kaapo Kahkonen G | 60:00 | +0.21 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 27:25 | 2 | +0.31 | −0.05 | −0.15 | +0.34 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 22:46 | +0.29 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.38 | +0.02 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 12:46 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.14 | +0.36 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nick Bjugstad C | 18:22 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 12:33 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joshua Brown D | 10:35 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 14:13 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Kassian R | 8:08 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 20:27 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Jakob Chychrun D | 23:01 | 2 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.19 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Juuso Välimäki D | 14:39 | −0.14 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 22:04 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 19:01 | −0.20 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Guenther R | 16:08 | −0.20 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Boyd C | 15:53 | −0.22 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 11:13 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Ritchie L | 15:17 | −0.24 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 13:52 | −0.31 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 57:37 | −0.90 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.