CHI beat CGY 4–3 in overtime. CHI lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 3.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Max Domi scored at 1:04 of overtime, moving CHI’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Jacob Markstrom allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:39 | CHI | Lukas Reichel from Seth Jones | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 8:49 | CGY | Elias LindholmPP from Jonathan Huberdeau, Tyler Toffoli | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 10:10 | CHI | Colin Blackwell from Sam Lafferty, Reese Johnson | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 0:35 | CHI | Philipp Kurashev from Lukas Reichel, Max Domi | 1–3 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 1:02 | CGY | Jonathan Huberdeau from Milan Lucic | 2–3 | 14% → 28% |
| P2 9:40 | CGY | Nazem KadriPP from Elias Lindholm, Tyler Toffoli | 3–3 | 27% → 47% |
| OT 1:04 | CHI | Max Domi from Lukas Reichel, Jake McCabe | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 19:13 | 1 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.17 | +0.23 | +0.17 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Elias Lindholm C | 19:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.08 | +0.31 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Nazem Kadri C | 20:19 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.25 | +0.25 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 26:03 | +0.25 | +0.15 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 22:14 | +0.25 | +0.33 | +0.00 | −0.12 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 20:52 | +0.16 | +0.31 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 15:33 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.06 | −0.07 | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 17:23 | 2 | +0.08 | +0.06 | −0.11 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Backlund C | 17:28 | +0.01 | +0.28 | −0.18 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 20:59 | −0.03 | +0.09 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 18:21 | −0.04 | +0.25 | −0.24 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Adam Ruzicka C | 7:52 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 17:28 | −0.06 | +0.18 | −0.16 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radim Zohorna L | 6:35 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 9:17 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 16:51 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Stone D | 11:54 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dillon Dube C | 13:43 | −0.38 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 40:29 | +0.33 |
| Jacob Markstrom G | 20:35 | −1.91 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Reichel L | 16:16 | 1 | 2 | +0.58 | +0.00 | +0.15 | +0.42 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Max Domi C | 16:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.03 | +0.29 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Philipp Kurashev C | 19:11 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.16 | +0.38 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Colin Blackwell C | 11:27 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.04 | +0.31 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake McCabe D | 21:04 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Reese Johnson C | 11:24 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Lafferty C | 11:25 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Brett Seney L | 13:27 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 21:03 | −0.13 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Raddysh R | 17:04 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Caleb Jones D | 16:22 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 21:38 | −0.17 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 25:06 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.14 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Andreas Athanasiou C | 11:58 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jonathan Toews C | 19:28 | −0.27 | −0.20 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Johnson C | 16:28 | −0.35 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Ian Mitchell D | 13:57 | −0.36 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 16:12 | −0.39 | −0.22 | −0.10 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Stalock G | 61:04 | +0.57 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.