MTL beat STL 5–4. MTL also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Josh Anderson scored at 11:30 of the third, moving MTL’s win probability from 52% to 84%. Jordan Binnington allowed 2.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 19:25 |  STL | Brandon Saad from Brayden Schenn, Ivan Barbashev | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 1:43 |  MTL | Joel Armia from Jake Evans, Evgenii Dadonov | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 6:59 | STL | Alexey Toropchenko from Tyler Pitlick, Nikita Alexandrov | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 16:15 | MTL | Kirby DachPP from Nick Suzuki, Christian Dvorak | 2–2 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 0:36 | MTL | Cole Caufield from Nick Suzuki | 2–3 | 52% → 77% |
| P3 2:29 | STL | Nikita Alexandrov from Calle Rosen, Tyler Pitlick | 3–3 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 4:42 | STL | Pavel BuchnevichPP unassisted | 4–3 | 49% → 75% |
| P3 7:20 | MTL | Joel Armia from Jake Evans, Evgenii Dadonov | 4–4 | 23% → 52% |
| P3 11:30 | MTL | Josh Anderson from Jonathan Drouin, Johnathan Kovacevic | 4–5 | 52% → 84% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 10:35 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.01 | +0.61 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Saad L | 17:52 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.21 | +0.76 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Alexandrov C | 9:58 | 1 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.04 | +0.72 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 21:21 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.43 | +0.72 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noel Acciari C | 16:23 | +0.13 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Steven Santini D | 14:53 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 3:05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 15:24 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Leivo L | 10:28 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Neighbours L | 10:40 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Pitlick C | 10:28 | 2 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 18:34 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 26:23 | −0.19 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Rosen D | 21:16 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Niko Mikkola D | 22:49 | −0.22 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 19:42 | −0.35 | −0.28 | −0.08 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 18:34 | −0.44 | −0.30 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 25:54 | −0.60 | −0.40 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 58:10 | −2.06 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Armia R | 17:36 | 2 | +1.82 | +0.26 | +1.57 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 15:41 | 1 | +1.00 | −0.02 | +0.84 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Kirby Dach C | 19:38 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.21 | +0.78 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Caufield R | 19:08 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.21 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Edmundson D | 23:59 | +0.35 | +0.34 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Savard D | 22:36 | +0.29 | +0.42 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 19:09 | 2 | +0.21 | +0.36 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Jonathan Drouin L | 12:50 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.15 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Jordan Harris D | 19:55 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 16:59 | 2 | +0.00 | +0.22 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Wideman D | 9:05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 14:15 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 11:58 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 18:40 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Richard C | 4:49 | −0.15 | +0.06 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 21:50 | 2 | −0.16 | +0.23 | −0.34 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Christian Dvorak C | 19:50 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.15 | −0.31 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Michael Pezzetta L | 6:13 | −0.34 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.38 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 60:00 | −1.93 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.