BUF beat MIN 6–5 in overtime. BUF lost the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 4.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Victor Olofsson scored at 4:41 of overtime, moving BUF’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Marc-Andre Fleury allowed 2.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:00 | BUF | Victor Olofsson from Casey Mittelstadt, Rasmus Dahlin | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 2:52 | MIN | Brandon Duhaime from Ryan Hartman, Mathew Dumba | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 6:46 | MIN | Kirill KaprizovPP from Calen Addison, Sam Steel | 2–1 | 53% → 68% |
| P2 10:30 | BUF | Tage ThompsonPP from Rasmus Dahlin, Dylan Cozens | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 12:02 | BUF | Rasmus Dahlin from Casey Mittelstadt, Tyson Jost | 2–3 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 13:55 | BUF | Dylan CozensPP from Alex Tuch | 2–4 | 76% → 90% |
| P2 18:45 | MIN | Ryan Hartman from Frederick Gaudreau | 3–4 | 9% → 23% |
| P3 0:26 | MIN | Marcus Foligno from Joel Eriksson Ek, Jordan Greenway | 4–4 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 7:48 | MIN | Joel Eriksson EkPP from Calen Addison, Marc-Andre Fleury | 5–4 | 49% → 78% |
| P3 17:36 | BUF | Rasmus Dahlin from Casey Mittelstadt, Owen Power | 5–5 | 8% → 51% |
| OT 4:41 | BUF | Victor Olofsson from Peyton Krebs, Rasmus Dahlin | 5–6 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 20:10 | 1 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.39 | +0.56 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Marcus Foligno L | 15:42 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.30 | +0.29 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Duhaime R | 12:21 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.09 | +0.58 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Hartman R | 16:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.22 | +0.58 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jared Spurgeon D | 17:23 | +0.13 | +0.12 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 9:06 | +0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 16:31 | +0.06 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 20:37 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.19 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.38 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Greenway L | 14:54 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.15 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Calen Addison D | 18:53 | 2 | −0.03 | +0.34 | −0.36 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mason Shaw C | 12:25 | −0.07 | −0.18 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 14:47 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 20:25 | −0.13 | +0.31 | −0.47 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 21:54 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 16:06 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.04 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Connor Dewar C | 11:28 | −0.28 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 26:19 | −0.32 | +0.04 | −0.38 | −0.02 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 25:43 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.41 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 64:36 | −2.51 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 29:25 | 2 | 3 | +1.82 | +0.00 | +1.64 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Victor Olofsson R | 13:35 | 2 | +1.36 | −0.07 | +1.44 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Cozens C | 14:30 | 1 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.19 | +0.73 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Tage Thompson C | 22:43 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.27 | +0.71 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jacob Bryson D | 12:25 | +0.08 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 17:13 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 23:51 | −0.05 | −0.17 | −0.12 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 16:48 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 9:00 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 8:52 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 14:32 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 12:05 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.06 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 9:54 | −0.25 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 14:18 | 3 | −0.33 | −0.15 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Kale Clague D | 17:28 | −0.36 | −0.04 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Power D | 28:53 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.25 | −0.30 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 22:25 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.21 | −0.29 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 20:53 | −0.67 | +0.15 | −0.79 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 64:41 | −0.35 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.