BOS beat LAK 5–2. BOS lost the expected-goals battle 1.8 to 2.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Trent Frederic scored at 10:36 of the third, moving BOS’s win probability from 48% to 81%. Pheonix Copley allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–LAK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:04 | LAK | Phillip Danault from Alex Iafallo, Mikey Anderson | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 6:26 | BOS | David Pastrnak from Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 8:47 | BOS | Brad MarchandPP from Charlie McAvoy | 2–1 | 48% → 68% |
| P2 11:08 | LAK | Sean Durzi from Matt Roy, Anze Kopitar | 2–2 | 31% → 53% |
| P3 10:36 | BOS | Trent Frederic from Brandon Carlo | 3–2 | 48% → 81% |
| P3 11:10 | BOS | Trent Frederic from Nick Foligno, Charlie Coyle | 4–2 | 81% → 96% |
| P3 17:33 | BOS | David PastrnakEN unassisted | 5–2 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Frederic C | 13:35 | 2 | +1.43 | +0.03 | +1.40 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Pastrnak R | 20:05 | 2 | +0.74 | +0.01 | +0.69 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brad Marchand L | 18:25 | 1 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.05 | +0.83 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Brandon Carlo D | 19:08 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Charlie McAvoy D | 22:17 | 2 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Foligno L | 17:21 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Charlie Coyle C | 17:21 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| A.J. Greer L | 7:34 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 23:53 | −0.08 | +0.09 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 15:06 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| David Krejci C | 16:40 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 10:17 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 14:52 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 9:46 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 17:30 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 17:07 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Forbort D | 20:11 | −0.21 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrice Bergeron C | 16:56 | −0.37 | −0.03 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman G | 59:56 | +0.55 |
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Durzi D | 22:26 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.05 | +0.84 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Phillip Danault C | 17:36 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.05 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Drew Doughty D | 25:49 | +0.20 | +0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikey Anderson D | 22:38 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.15 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Roy D | 17:41 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Kupari C | 8:55 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 16:50 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brendan Lemieux L | 7:15 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adrian Kempe R | 16:56 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 14:37 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaret Anderson-Dolan C | 9:42 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Edler D | 14:43 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Iafallo L | 17:53 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.11 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anze Kopitar C | 17:52 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.13 | −0.35 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Quinton Byfield R | 17:32 | −0.24 | +0.10 | −0.36 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 17:26 | −0.28 | +0.12 | −0.40 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Lizotte C | 15:43 | −0.30 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Fiala L | 18:49 | −0.63 | −0.05 | −0.57 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pheonix Copley G | 59:31 | −2.22 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.