BUF beat WSH 5–4 in overtime. BUF lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Tage Thompson scored at 3:00 of overtime, moving BUF’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Darcy Kuemper allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:48 | BUF | Alex Tuch from Tage Thompson, Jeff Skinner | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 12:07 | WSH | Sonny Milano from Anthony Mantha, Matt Irwin | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 17:29 | BUF | Tage ThompsonPP from Rasmus Dahlin, Dylan Cozens | 2–1 | 48% → 65% |
| P2 5:50 | BUF | Tage Thompson from Alex Tuch, Ilya Lyubushkin | 3–1 | 67% → 82% |
| P2 16:46 | WSH | Alex Ovechkin from Evgeny Kuznetsov | 3–2 | 12% → 29% |
| P3 0:55 | WSH | Nic Dowd from Sonny Milano, Nick Jensen | 3–3 | 27% → 52% |
| P3 7:10 | WSH | Alex Ovechkin from Conor Sheary | 3–4 | 52% → 81% |
| P3 11:42 | BUF | Tyson Jost from Casey Mittelstadt, Owen Power | 4–4 | 15% → 48% |
| OT 3:00 | BUF | Tage Thompson from Alex Tuch | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tage Thompson C | 19:56 | 3 | 1 | +1.03 | −0.08 | +1.08 | +0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.09 |
| Alex Tuch R | 18:51 | 1 | 2 | +0.96 | −0.04 | +0.30 | +0.51 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Tyson Jost C | 15:06 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.17 | +0.41 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Owen Power D | 21:44 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 27:58 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.33 | +0.00 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Okposo R | 15:07 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 16:30 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 15:45 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.12 | −0.07 | +0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 14:56 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 13:22 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 15:13 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 14:33 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kale Clague D | 17:20 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 13:06 | −0.24 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 12:38 | −0.25 | +0.02 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 18:26 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.28 | −0.08 | +0.15 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Dylan Cozens C | 15:53 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 22:57 | −0.33 | −0.32 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 63:00 | −0.60 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Ovechkin L | 20:33 | 2 | +0.78 | +0.31 | +0.52 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sonny Milano L | 14:55 | 1 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.05 | +0.30 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nic Dowd C | 15:01 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.06 | +0.39 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.14 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 23:27 | +0.46 | +0.48 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 16:42 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.24 | −0.09 | +0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 21:49 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.28 | −0.17 | +0.31 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Garnet Hathaway R | 11:54 | +0.20 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 15:05 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nick Jensen D | 22:01 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.23 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitry Orlov D | 21:57 | +0.08 | +0.20 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gustafsson D | 22:26 | +0.07 | +0.18 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 15:35 | −0.02 | +0.13 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Matt Irwin D | 16:22 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Johansson L | 13:45 | −0.10 | +0.06 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Fehérváry D | 17:01 | −0.12 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aliaksei Protas L | 8:44 | −0.24 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 13:41 | −0.36 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| T.J. Oshie R | 15:55 | −0.46 | −0.05 | −0.18 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 62:56 | −1.85 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.