VGK beat COL 3–2. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nicolas Roy scored at 7:14 of the second, moving VGK’s win probability from 47% to 67%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:25 | COL | Nathan MacKinnon from Mikko Rantanen, Artturi Lehkonen | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 17:02 |  VGK | Michael Amadio from Nicolas Hague, Mark Stone | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 7:14 | VGK | Nicolas Roy from Keegan Kolesar, Kaedan Korczak | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 14:46 | VGK | Nicolas Roy from William Carrier, Alex Pietrangelo | 3–1 | 70% → 87% |
| P3 11:07 | COL | Mikko Rantanen from Artturi Lehkonen, Nathan MacKinnon | 3–2 | 4% → 19% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Roy C | 15:50 | 2 | +1.63 | +0.02 | +1.67 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Michael Amadio R | 14:02 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.12 | +0.78 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kaedan Korczak D | 15:30 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.29 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 24:29 | +0.33 | +0.34 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 21:44 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chandler Stephenson C | 21:32 | +0.02 | +0.22 | −0.28 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Jake Leschyshyn C | 8:21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 28:29 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.10 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Rondbjerg R | 10:04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Pachal D | 15:40 | −0.08 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Hutton D | 12:32 | −0.09 | +0.10 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 8:56 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.09 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Phil Kessel R | 12:46 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Byron Froese C | 7:22 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 17:32 | −0.23 | +0.09 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 19:20 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.29 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| William Carrier L | 12:58 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Stone R | 20:59 | 1 | −0.32 | +0.22 | −0.62 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson G | 59:54 | +0.51 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikko Rantanen R | 27:13 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.10 | +0.64 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 27:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.24 | +0.27 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Martin Kaut R | 7:00 | +0.10 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Englund D | 7:47 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 27:55 | −0.02 | −0.26 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 4:31 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 20:58 | −0.07 | −0.22 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Helm C | 8:55 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 27:54 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.13 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 10:19 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 23:57 | 2 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brad Hunt D | 9:07 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Denis Malgin C | 15:20 | −0.17 | +0.05 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Meyers C | 11:53 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 17:12 | −0.28 | −0.23 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 17:07 | −0.34 | −0.19 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 22:39 | −0.40 | −0.12 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.08 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 11:16 | −0.46 | −0.08 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 57:50 | −0.62 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.