OTT beat BUF 3–1. OTT lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jake Lucchini scored on the power play at 11:45 of the second, moving OTT’s win probability from 54% to 74%. Anton Forsberg saved 1.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:47 | OTT | Tim Stützle from Claude Giroux | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 6:51 | BUF | Zemgus Girgensons from Mattias Samuelsson, Ilya Lyubushkin | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 11:45 | OTT | Jake LucchiniPP from Derick Brassard, Claude Giroux | 1–2 | 54% → 74% |
| P3 18:49 | OTT | Tim StützleEN from Thomas Chabot | 1–3 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 15:05 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.06 | +0.75 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 29:29 | +0.21 | +0.15 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 23:41 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.13 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 18:34 | +0.09 | +0.10 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Kale Clague D | 17:22 | +0.06 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 15:24 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 13:36 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 7:45 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Bryson D | 12:10 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Power D | 25:15 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 12:20 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 19:47 | −0.14 | +0.08 | −0.26 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 11:33 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 14:26 | −0.18 | +0.05 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 11:36 | −0.21 | +0.05 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 14:53 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 19:39 | −0.25 | +0.10 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 16:42 | −0.59 | −0.08 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Craig Anderson G | 58:57 | +0.78 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Lucchini C | 13:39 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.10 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tim Stützle C | 21:21 | 2 | +0.56 | −0.15 | +0.76 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Artem Zub D | 23:20 | +0.09 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 14:01 | −0.02 | +0.08 | −0.27 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 21:39 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 15:30 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 18:49 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.12 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 12:49 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derick Brassard C | 7:21 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Mark Kastelic C | 8:12 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Austin Watson L | 9:44 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Gambrell C | 14:14 | −0.23 | +0.04 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 23:35 | 1 | −0.27 | +0.04 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Holden D | 15:15 | −0.29 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 16:57 | 2 | −0.41 | −0.11 | −0.31 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Hamonic D | 21:58 | −0.41 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 18:09 | −0.46 | −0.04 | −0.43 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 17:27 | −0.58 | −0.21 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Forsberg G | 60:00 | +1.75 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.