WPG beat EDM 2–1. WPG lost the expected-goals battle 1.9 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Kyle Connor scored at 6:55 of the third, moving WPG’s win probability from 48% to 77%. Connor Hellebuyck saved 2.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:44 | WPG | Neal PionkPP from Kyle Connor, Pierre-Luc Dubois | 1–0 | 48% → 65% |
| P3 4:29 | EDM | Klim Kostin from Mattias Janmark | 1–1 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 6:55 | WPG | Kyle Connor from Neal Pionk, Kristian Reichel | 2–1 | 48% → 77% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Connor L | 19:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.04 | +0.67 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Neal Pionk D | 23:15 | 1 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.00 | +0.60 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Brenden Dillon D | 20:14 | +0.13 | +0.19 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kristian Reichel C | 11:12 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Gustafsson C | 9:54 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Dylan Samberg D | 20:38 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jansen Harkins C | 5:51 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 16:51 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Morgan Barron C | 15:43 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 21:09 | −0.07 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 18:14 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 17:11 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.06 | −0.33 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Axel Jonsson-Fjallby L | 13:42 | −0.14 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 18:13 | −0.19 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ville Heinola D | 14:03 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 21:10 | −0.22 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Karson Kuhlman C | 14:59 | −0.45 | −0.07 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Gagner C | 10:01 | −0.57 | −0.25 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 60:00 | +2.18 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Klim Kostin C | 15:04 | 1 | +0.96 | −0.01 | +0.79 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Holloway L | 8:09 | +0.16 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 19:04 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philip Broberg D | 10:19 | +0.08 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 19:24 | +0.03 | +0.14 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 10:51 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 21:48 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devin Shore C | 8:25 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 15:58 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 13:37 | −0.16 | +0.26 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 10:33 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 17:47 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 10:42 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 24:53 | −0.20 | +0.08 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 26:02 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 23:47 | −0.39 | −0.05 | −0.40 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 23:50 | −0.49 | +0.06 | −0.58 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 16:01 | −0.64 | −0.14 | −0.48 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jack Campbell G | 58:46 | +0.04 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.