DAL beat SJS 5–2. DAL lost the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Fredrik Olofsson scored at 10:45 of the second, moving DAL’s win probability from 53% to 74%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:13 | SJS | Alexander Barabanov from Matt Benning, Erik Karlsson | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 10:22 | DAL | Joe PavelskiPP from Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 12:34 | DAL | Jason RobertsonPP from Miro Heiskanen, Joe Pavelski | 1–2 | 54% → 70% |
| P2 9:03 | SJS | Oskar Lindblom from Nico Sturm, Marc-Edouard Vlasic | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 10:45 | DAL | Fredrik Olofsson from Joe Pavelski, Radek Faksa | 2–3 | 53% → 74% |
| P3 15:18 | DAL | Roope HintzSH from Jamie Benn | 2–4 | 88% → 98% |
| P3 18:47 | DAL | Esa LindellEN unassisted | 2–5 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oskar Lindblom L | 9:37 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.12 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Benning D | 22:36 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.38 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Barabanov L | 20:22 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.20 | +0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Couture C | 21:37 | +0.12 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Radim Simek D | 1:51 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 22:07 | +0.02 | +0.20 | −0.38 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaycob Megna D | 19:26 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 13:52 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 21:04 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 19:53 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 17:42 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 28:59 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.21 | −0.32 | +0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Labanc R | 15:26 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeny Svechnikov L | 9:48 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Nieto L | 16:36 | −0.26 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonah Gadjovich L | 10:49 | −0.30 | +0.04 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 14:32 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.06 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Lorentz C | 10:22 | −0.40 | +0.05 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 58:57 | −0.42 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fredrik Olofsson L | 9:47 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.07 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Robertson L | 18:30 | 1 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.05 | +0.68 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Roope Hintz C | 19:21 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.01 | +0.59 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Joe Pavelski C | 17:31 | 1 | 2 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.14 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jani Hakanpää D | 20:30 | +0.13 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 19:56 | +0.07 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 13:17 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.13 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Tyler Seguin C | 13:15 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 20:03 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colin Miller D | 15:58 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 11:38 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 23:38 | 2 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nils Lundkvist D | 15:37 | −0.28 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 11:18 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Johnston C | 14:49 | −0.32 | −0.15 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 16:35 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.09 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Ty Dellandrea C | 14:02 | −0.36 | −0.10 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 16:15 | −0.86 | −0.17 | −0.33 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.38 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 60:00 | +0.96 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.