VGK beat NSH 5–4 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (NSH 3.1, VGK 2.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Nicolas Hague scored on the power play at 2:04 of overtime, moving VGK’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Kevin Lankinen allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:45 |  NSH | Filip Forsberg unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 11:22 | NSH | Jeremy Lauzon from Mikael Granlund, Dante Fabbro | 2–0 | 64% → 77% |
| P1 15:55 |  VGK | Keegan Kolesar from Daniil Miromanov, Brayden McNabb | 2–1 | 21% → 35% |
| P2 1:43 | VGK | Michael Amadio from Mark Stone, Chandler Stephenson | 2–2 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 8:53 | VGK | Reilly Smith from Keegan Kolesar, William Karlsson | 2–3 | 53% → 73% |
| P3 4:41 | VGK | Chandler Stephenson from Mark Stone | 2–4 | 79% → 94% |
| P3 11:41 | NSH | Filip Forsberg from Ryan McDonagh, Colton Sissons | 3–4 | 3% → 15% |
| P3 19:55 | NSH | Filip ForsbergPP from Matt Duchene, Roman Josi | 4–4 | 3% → 49% |
| OT 2:04 | VGK | Nicolas HaguePP from Mark Stone, Chandler Stephenson | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Forsberg L | 19:56 | 3 | +2.49 | −0.13 | +2.43 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 14:04 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.11 | +0.90 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Juuso Parssinen C | 15:06 | +0.19 | +0.05 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 4:18 | +0.15 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 23:36 | +0.07 | +0.11 | −0.09 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Glass C | 16:24 | +0.04 | +0.35 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 20:36 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Johansen C | 15:44 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 20:30 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dante Fabbro D | 13:57 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 21:56 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.16 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Colton Sissons C | 14:26 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Roman Josi D | 25:57 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.10 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tommy Novak C | 11:16 | −0.34 | −0.04 | −0.28 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 10:07 | −0.39 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 19:59 | −0.48 | +0.14 | −0.61 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 14:41 | −0.49 | +0.15 | −0.62 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Duchene C | 18:59 | 1 | −0.52 | −0.22 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lankinen G | 60:44 | −1.81 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keegan Kolesar R | 13:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.16 | +0.67 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Chandler Stephenson C | 20:33 | 1 | 2 | +0.76 | −0.03 | +0.82 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Nicolas Hague D | 27:59 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.03 | +0.69 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Amadio R | 17:09 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.00 | +0.37 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 18:09 | 1 | +0.24 | −0.36 | +0.78 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Stone R | 22:11 | 3 | +0.18 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 8:31 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Daniil Miromanov D | 11:34 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sheldon Rempal R | 7:44 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 13:27 | −0.08 | +0.13 | −0.39 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Rondbjerg R | 11:18 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brayden Pachal D | 20:47 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Hutton D | 22:19 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 29:05 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.07 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 17:10 | −0.20 | −0.10 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 19:05 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.10 | −0.36 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Jake Leschyshyn C | 7:59 | −0.30 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Phil Kessel R | 10:27 | −0.43 | −0.03 | −0.41 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson G | 61:30 | −0.55 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.