BUF beat BOS 4–3 in overtime. BUF lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 4.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Alex Tuch scored at 3:53 of overtime, moving BUF’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen saved 2.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:09 |  BOS | David Pastrnak from David Krejci, Pavel Zacha | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 16:13 |  BUF | Tage Thompson from Jeff Skinner, Alex Tuch | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 2:03 | BUF | Alex Tuch from Ilya Lyubushkin | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P3 5:16 | BOS | Patrice BergeronPP from Brad Marchand, Jake DeBrusk | 2–2 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 12:25 | BOS | Brad Marchand from David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy | 2–3 | 51% → 85% |
| P3 18:23 | BUF | Dylan CozensPP from Alex Tuch, Rasmus Dahlin | 3–3 | 6% → 50% |
| OT 3:53 | BUF | Alex Tuch from Dylan Cozens | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Tuch R | 21:30 | 2 | 2 | +1.40 | −0.19 | +1.57 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Dylan Cozens C | 17:26 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.11 | +0.53 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.05 |
| Tage Thompson C | 22:39 | 1 | +0.32 | −0.27 | +0.56 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| JJ Peterka R | 13:28 | +0.04 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 12:40 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 15:24 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 13:54 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 10:59 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 14:22 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 24:45 | −0.21 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Power D | 28:44 | −0.24 | −0.23 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kale Clague D | 9:41 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 12:03 | −0.28 | −0.07 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 11:37 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 19:03 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.33 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Okposo R | 14:32 | −0.40 | +0.00 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 13:10 | −0.44 | −0.19 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 27:52 | 1 | −0.70 | −0.22 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 63:16 | +2.15 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Pastrnak R | 20:30 | 1 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.32 | +0.38 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brad Marchand L | 22:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.21 | +0.13 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Patrice Bergeron C | 20:18 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.18 | +0.07 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Charlie McAvoy D | 26:48 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.33 | −0.12 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake DeBrusk L | 18:20 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.22 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Derek Forbort D | 19:12 | +0.08 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 18:38 | +0.06 | +0.12 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 16:03 | +0.02 | +0.16 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 6:06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 14:16 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Krejci C | 20:25 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.10 | −0.21 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Nick Foligno L | 11:13 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 23:44 | −0.15 | +0.27 | −0.45 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 19:38 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.26 | −0.41 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Charlie Coyle C | 14:55 | −0.18 | +0.08 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 15:03 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 6:41 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 11:02 | −0.26 | +0.08 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman G | 63:51 | −1.47 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.