BUF beat CBJ 5–2. BUF also won the expected-goals battle 4.2 to 3.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Victor Olofsson scored at 12:35 of the second, moving BUF’s win probability from 47% to 69%. Devon Levi saved 1.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:34 | CBJ | Johnny Gaudreau from Tim Berni, Adam Boqvist | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 8:36 | BUF | Jeff Skinner from Casey Mittelstadt | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 12:35 | BUF | Victor Olofsson from Dylan Cozens, Kale Clague | 2–1 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 14:01 | BUF | Alex Tuch from Jeff Skinner | 3–1 | 70% → 86% |
| P2 18:24 | CBJ | Tyler Angle from Andrew Peeke, Gavin Bayreuther | 3–2 | 12% → 28% |
| P3 4:03 | BUF | Casey Mittelstadt from Jeff Skinner | 4–2 | 75% → 92% |
| P3 17:27 | BUF | Peyton Krebs unassisted | 5–2 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Skinner L | 16:02 | 1 | 2 | +0.77 | +0.16 | +0.61 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 16:00 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.16 | +0.60 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Peyton Krebs C | 14:20 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.11 | +0.81 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 15:18 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.11 | +0.59 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Victor Olofsson R | 16:49 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.07 | +0.34 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kale Clague D | 21:27 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Greenway L | 11:49 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 2:43 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 23:24 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 14:36 | +0.00 | +0.11 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Owen Power D | 23:50 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 16:12 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lukas Rousek R | 13:34 | −0.15 | +0.09 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 15:55 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.12 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 26:10 | −0.18 | +0.23 | −0.39 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 15:25 | −0.22 | +0.12 | −0.40 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 13:37 | −0.27 | −0.16 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Stillman D | 20:49 | −0.32 | +0.08 | −0.22 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devon Levi G | 60:00 | +1.39 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 14:59 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.00 | +0.62 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Angle C | 12:08 | 1 | +0.32 | −0.09 | +0.44 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Andrew Peeke D | 15:27 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.17 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Boqvist D | 6:59 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Billy Sweezey D | 22:52 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam Foudy C | 19:08 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 14:25 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gavin Bayreuther D | 8:19 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.09 | −0.38 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Samuel Knazko D | 21:42 | −0.17 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 14:16 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Emil Bemstrom C | 18:28 | −0.23 | −0.10 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kent Johnson C | 19:00 | −0.29 | −0.05 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Pyyhtia L | 15:07 | −0.30 | −0.22 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 16:11 | −0.32 | −0.04 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Tim Berni D | 21:29 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.09 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Hunter McKown C | 17:24 | −0.41 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Stanislav Svozil D | 21:01 | −0.46 | −0.26 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joona Luoto L | 19:05 | −0.55 | −0.10 | −0.42 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jon Gillies G | 40:00 | −0.21 |
| Michael Hutchinson G | 20:00 | −0.92 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.