OTT beat BOS 3–2 in a shootout. OTT lost the expected-goals battle 3.9 to 4.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Pavel Zacha scored at 16:27 of the third, moving BOS’s win probability from 9% to 49%. Cam Talbot saved 3.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 8:11 |  OTT | Tim StützlePP from Thomas Chabot, Drake Batherson | 0–1 | 54% → 73% |
| P2 10:33 | BOS | Jake DeBrusk from Patrice Bergeron, Charlie McAvoy | 1–1 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 13:37 | OTT | Alex DeBrincat from Drake Batherson, Nick Holden | 1–2 | 53% → 75% |
| P3 16:27 | BOS | Pavel Zacha from Hampus Lindholm, Charlie Coyle | 2–2 | 9% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavel Zacha C | 15:06 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.77 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Jake DeBrusk L | 19:13 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.06 | +0.46 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.39 | |
| Nick Foligno L | 12:20 | +0.12 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Charlie McAvoy D | 23:40 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 18:24 | +0.07 | +0.12 | −0.31 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 17:03 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Krejci C | 20:08 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.27 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Derek Forbort D | 15:02 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 9:57 | −0.08 | +0.11 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 19:46 | −0.14 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Marchand L | 20:18 | −0.15 | +0.24 | −0.43 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 16:56 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 24:55 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.42 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.38 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Nosek L | 11:34 | −0.26 | +0.05 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 10:46 | −0.36 | −0.01 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Patrice Bergeron C | 18:53 | 1 | −0.38 | +0.35 | −0.86 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.15 | −0.00 | |
| Charlie Coyle C | 15:51 | 1 | −0.57 | +0.07 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.33 | |
| David Pastrnak R | 23:10 | −1.33 | −0.13 | −0.73 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.51 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman G | 64:46 | +2.05 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex DeBrincat R | 20:00 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.41 | −0.14 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.65 | |
| Thomas Chabot D | 31:04 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.28 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Parker Kelly C | 13:51 | +0.01 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 7:16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derick Brassard C | 9:38 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 24:08 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.28 | +0.33 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.38 | −0.02 | −0.21 | |
| Drake Batherson R | 20:04 | 2 | −0.10 | +0.18 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.17 | |
| Mark Kastelic C | 8:57 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Dillon Heatherington D | 8:28 | −0.19 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Watson L | 11:20 | −0.21 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 19:42 | −0.23 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | ||
| Jake Lucchini C | 9:29 | −0.24 | +0.08 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 24:24 | −0.33 | +0.10 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 16:16 | −0.36 | −0.01 | −0.33 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 27:13 | −0.38 | −0.15 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Holden D | 24:41 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.40 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Gambrell C | 13:03 | −0.50 | −0.43 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 19:26 | −0.59 | +0.23 | −0.74 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 65:00 | +3.87 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.