VGK beat STL 5–4 in a shootout. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 2.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Chandler Stephenson scored on the power play at 18:24 of the third, moving VGK’s win probability from 7% to 50%. Jordan Binnington allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:22 |  VGK | Alex Pietrangelo from Chandler Stephenson, Michael Amadio | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 0:39 | STL | Pavel Buchnevich from Robert Thomas, Vladimir Tarasenko | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 4:29 | VGK | Mark Stone from Michael Amadio, Chandler Stephenson | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 6:17 | STL | Vladimir TarasenkoPP from Pavel Buchnevich, Torey Krug | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 8:17 | STL | Justin Faulk from Vladimir Tarasenko, Torey Krug | 3–2 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 18:34 | VGK | Michael Amadio from Mark Stone, Chandler Stephenson | 3–3 | 28% → 53% |
| P3 10:45 | STL | Noel Acciari from Brandon Saad, Brayden Schenn | 4–3 | 48% → 81% |
| P3 18:24 | VGK | Chandler StephensonPP from Alex Pietrangelo, William Karlsson | 4–4 | 7% → 50% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 17:34 | 1 | 2 | +0.98 | −0.03 | +0.23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.77 |
| Justin Faulk D | 23:53 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.13 | +0.71 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noel Acciari C | 16:20 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.19 | +0.69 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 20:19 | 1 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.46 | +0.69 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Niko Mikkola D | 13:07 | +0.10 | +0.14 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Leivo L | 15:48 | +0.10 | +0.16 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Logan Brown C | 6:10 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 8:32 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Tyler Pitlick C | 6:30 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 11:43 | −0.07 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 25:55 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 22:53 | −0.15 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 18:24 | −0.21 | −0.12 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 20:28 | 1 | −0.36 | +0.12 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Torey Krug D | 22:57 | 2 | −0.37 | −0.35 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Thomas C | 19:01 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.33 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 21:24 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.23 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.17 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 21:15 | −0.51 | +0.06 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.04 | −0.51 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 65:00 | −1.48 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chandler Stephenson C | 22:30 | 1 | 3 | +1.69 | +0.32 | +0.35 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.99 |
| Mark Stone R | 21:59 | 1 | 1 | +1.35 | +0.45 | −0.14 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.99 |
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 28:29 | 1 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.38 | +0.51 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Michael Amadio R | 17:12 | 1 | 2 | +0.69 | +0.10 | +0.58 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| William Karlsson C | 21:00 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.41 | −0.32 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Daniil Miromanov D | 18:24 | +0.21 | +0.26 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 21:06 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 11:14 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jonas Rondbjerg R | 8:06 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jake Leschyshyn C | 9:33 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 20:56 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alec Martinez D | 18:30 | −0.23 | −0.15 | −0.11 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phil Kessel R | 13:19 | −0.26 | +0.03 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 13:56 | −0.28 | −0.10 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 17:48 | −0.30 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.33 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 12:18 | −0.32 | −0.08 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brayden Pachal D | 14:44 | −0.34 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 19:14 | −0.46 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.39 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson G | 64:44 | −0.89 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.