VAN beat SEA 6–5 in a shootout. VAN also won the expected-goals battle 4.2 to 3.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Elias Pettersson scored on the power play at 18:40 of the third, moving VAN’s win probability from 7% to 50%. Martin Jones allowed 2.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:01 | SEA | Jared McCann from Matty Beniers, Carson Soucy | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 17:17 | VAN | Lane Pederson from Elias Pettersson, Andrei Kuzmenko | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 3:28 | SEA | Oliver Bjorkstrand from Jaden Schwartz | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 3:38 | SEA | Daniel Sprong from Adam Larsson, Morgan Geekie | 3–1 | 66% → 82% |
| P2 8:09 | VAN | Elias Pettersson from Luke Schenn, Andrei Kuzmenko | 3–2 | 17% → 32% |
| P2 13:29 | SEA | Alexander Wennberg from Oliver Bjorkstrand, Will Borgen | 4–2 | 70% → 86% |
| P3 5:13 | VAN | Andrei Kuzmenko from Lane Pederson, Elias Pettersson | 4–3 | 8% → 24% |
| P3 6:17 | SEA | Daniel Sprong from Brandon Tanev | 5–3 | 77% → 93% |
| P3 8:52 | VAN | Brock BoeserPP from Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes | 5–4 | 6% → 21% |
| P3 18:40 | VAN | Elias PetterssonPP from J.T. Miller | 5–5 | 7% → 50% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Sprong R | 10:19 | 2 | +1.03 | +0.05 | +1.37 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.39 | |
| Jared McCann L | 15:53 | 1 | +0.86 | −0.05 | +0.89 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 16:22 | 1 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.03 | +0.48 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Alexander Wennberg C | 20:35 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.34 | +0.66 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Jordan Eberle R | 15:07 | +0.31 | −0.10 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.66 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 12:46 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 22:00 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 20:45 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 17:01 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 12:24 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matty Beniers C | 17:13 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.13 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Jaden Schwartz C | 18:11 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Brandon Tanev L | 12:21 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.10 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Andre Burakovsky L | 18:46 | −0.35 | +0.06 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 29:40 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.36 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vince Dunn D | 26:30 | −0.42 | −0.28 | −0.19 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Geekie C | 12:07 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.30 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Ryan Donato C | 14:26 | −0.88 | +0.06 | −0.57 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.33 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Jones G | 65:00 | −2.61 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elias Pettersson C | 19:33 | 2 | 3 | +2.80 | +0.62 | +1.20 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.99 |
| J.T. Miller C | 22:22 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.43 | −0.32 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.77 | |
| Lane Pederson C | 12:40 | 1 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.05 | +0.80 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 17:50 | 1 | 2 | +0.81 | +0.48 | +0.64 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.33 |
| Brock Boeser R | 17:49 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.44 | +0.24 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Bo Horvat C | 23:52 | +0.47 | +0.49 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.05 | −0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 30:18 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.50 | −0.26 | +0.05 | −0.05 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 18:54 | +0.15 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 22:19 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Stillman D | 14:48 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 20:19 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dakota Joshua C | 9:27 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 22:09 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Aman C | 11:28 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 17:40 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Kyle Burroughs D | 11:31 | −0.24 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 10:27 | −0.36 | −0.04 | −0.32 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Sheldon Dries C | 11:52 | −0.43 | −0.11 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Martin G | 63:42 | −1.56 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.