MIN beat ANA 4–1. MIN also won the expected-goals battle 4.4 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Matt Boldy scored at 4:46 of the third, moving MIN’s win probability from 48% to 75%. Lukas Dostal saved 1.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 5:48 |  ANA | Mason McTavish unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 16:03 |  MIN | Connor Dewar from Ryan Reaves, Mason Shaw | 1–1 | 24% → 47% |
| P3 4:46 | MIN | Matt Boldy unassisted | 2–1 | 48% → 75% |
| P3 8:54 | MIN | Joel Eriksson EkPP from Calen Addison, Matt Boldy | 3–1 | 80% → 95% |
| P3 18:12 | MIN | Ryan HartmanEN from Matt Boldy, Frederick Gaudreau | 4–1 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Dewar C | 11:05 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.04 | +0.91 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Matt Boldy L | 19:15 | 1 | 2 | +0.45 | +0.33 | +0.07 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Calen Addison D | 19:44 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.40 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 20:49 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.19 | −0.33 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.38 | −0.01 | |
| Mason Shaw C | 11:59 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jon Merrill D | 14:40 | +0.14 | +0.16 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 13:00 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.08 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 21:46 | +0.07 | +0.18 | −0.29 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 12:05 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jared Spurgeon D | 17:16 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 17:29 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 18:45 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 12:38 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 21:19 | −0.10 | +0.13 | −0.29 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 15:40 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 15:11 | −0.30 | +0.04 | −0.33 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 21:35 | −0.36 | −0.11 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 11:21 | 1 | −0.42 | +0.06 | −0.28 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 60:00 | +0.56 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason McTavish C | 12:47 | 1 | +0.83 | −0.03 | +0.74 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.05 | |
| Maxime Comtois L | 11:52 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| John Klingberg D | 18:17 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Kirkland C | 8:37 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayson Megna C | 9:39 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Leason R | 9:43 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 16:29 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nathan Beaulieu D | 19:14 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 18:02 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 18:55 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 14:31 | −0.25 | −0.08 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 22:33 | −0.27 | −0.11 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 18:11 | −0.33 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 15:37 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 17:20 | −0.38 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 20:30 | −0.39 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 20:41 | −0.42 | −0.11 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 14:04 | −0.43 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 59:31 | +1.55 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.