NSH beat CHI 4–2. Expected goals were close to even (NSH 3.5, CHI 3.3), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Roman Josi scored at 1:27 of the third, moving NSH’s win probability from 48% to 73%. Juuse Saros saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:23 |  NSH | Nino Niederreiter from Cody Glass, Dante Fabbro | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 16:03 | CHI | Connor Murphy from Boris Katchouk, Max Domi | 1–1 | 29% → 53% |
| P2 16:40 | CHI | MacKenzie Entwistle from Connor Murphy | 1–2 | 53% → 76% |
| P2 19:55 | NSH | Matt Duchene from Mattias Ekholm, Alexandre Carrier | 2–2 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 1:27 | NSH | Roman Josi from Ryan McDonagh, Juuso Parssinen | 3–2 | 48% → 73% |
| P3 6:09 | NSH | Tommy NovakPP from Roman Josi, Juuso Parssinen | 4–2 | 77% → 93% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nino Niederreiter R | 15:11 | 1 | +0.89 | −0.01 | +0.70 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Duchene C | 12:47 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.11 | +0.74 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tommy Novak C | 12:04 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.01 | +0.63 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Roman Josi D | 22:01 | 1 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.07 | +0.60 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Cole Smith L | 11:46 | +0.14 | +0.05 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 15:38 | +0.07 | +0.20 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Johansen C | 10:48 | +0.03 | +0.10 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 20:49 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tanner Jeannot L | 15:07 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 22:13 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Forsberg L | 16:25 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 21:35 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Glass C | 15:51 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.05 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 16:56 | −0.16 | −0.05 | −0.14 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 18:01 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.19 | −0.36 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Juuso Parssinen C | 15:03 | 2 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Colton Sissons C | 15:47 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 14:08 | −0.38 | +0.09 | −0.47 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 60:00 | +1.11 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MacKenzie Entwistle R | 8:23 | 1 | +1.05 | −0.01 | +0.89 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Murphy D | 17:30 | 1 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.07 | +0.84 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jason Dickinson C | 14:58 | +0.05 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 4:37 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boris Katchouk L | 8:02 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jujhar Khaira L | 6:30 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Lafferty C | 14:08 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 22:58 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isaak Phillips D | 17:59 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Mitchell D | 20:15 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Johnson C | 20:08 | −0.16 | +0.13 | −0.29 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Taylor Raddysh R | 18:56 | −0.22 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Athanasiou C | 18:45 | −0.24 | −0.04 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philipp Kurashev C | 19:24 | −0.26 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 27:25 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.25 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Toews C | 18:37 | −0.43 | −0.18 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Max Domi C | 20:25 | 1 | −0.61 | +0.11 | −0.57 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.05 | |
| Patrick Kane R | 20:26 | −0.77 | +0.10 | −0.93 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Petr Mrazek G | 58:28 | −0.83 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.