WSH beat DET 4–3 in overtime. WSH also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 1.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Dmitry Orlov scored at 4:38 of overtime, moving WSH’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Charlie Lindgren allowed 1.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:30 |  DET | David Perron from Michael Rasmussen, Dylan Larkin | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 15:36 | DET | Oskar SundqvistPP from Jonatan Berggren, Joe Veleno | 2–0 | 65% → 79% |
| P2 15:35 | WSH | Nic Dowd from Alex Ovechkin, Erik Gustafsson | 2–1 | 13% → 30% |
| P2 15:46 | WSH | Nic Dowd from Nick Jensen, Nicolas Aube-Kubel | 2–2 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 4:49 | DET | Lucas Raymond from Andrew Copp, Olli Maatta | 3–2 | 48% → 76% |
| P3 5:59 | WSH | Erik Gustafsson from Lars Eller, Nicolas Aube-Kubel | 3–3 | 24% → 52% |
| OT 4:38 | WSH | Dmitry Orlov from Marcus Johansson, Nic Dowd | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Raymond L | 18:04 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.08 | +0.86 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 13:39 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.05 | +0.57 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| David Perron L | 18:35 | 1 | +0.43 | −0.19 | +0.64 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Filip Hronek D | 24:12 | +0.08 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Erne L | 15:38 | +0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Oesterle D | 12:50 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 12:11 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 13:07 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Austin Czarnik C | 12:02 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 13:40 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Chiarot D | 22:34 | −0.20 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Kubalik L | 13:32 | −0.21 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 17:58 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 18:29 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.12 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Larkin C | 20:49 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jonatan Berggren R | 12:36 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Moritz Seider D | 28:32 | −0.37 | −0.39 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 19:26 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.17 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ville Husso G | 64:38 | −0.38 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nic Dowd C | 13:39 | 2 | 1 | +1.66 | +0.17 | +1.50 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Dmitry Orlov D | 25:56 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.17 | +0.75 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Gustafsson D | 21:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.19 | +0.66 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Dylan Strome C | 16:00 | +0.34 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Sonny Milano L | 15:08 | +0.25 | +0.14 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 21:31 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Johansson L | 18:33 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.21 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 24:31 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.28 | −0.26 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Irwin D | 11:07 | +0.06 | +0.11 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 13:29 | +0.03 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel R | 8:51 | 2 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Carlson D | 27:07 | −0.02 | +0.11 | −0.18 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aliaksei Protas L | 5:16 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 14:28 | −0.06 | +0.08 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 17:32 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.09 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 21:21 | −0.37 | +0.10 | −0.52 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 17:04 | −0.56 | +0.08 | −0.47 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 15:26 | −0.67 | −0.09 | −0.59 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren G | 64:38 | −1.19 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.