OTT beat DET 6–3. OTT also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Claude Giroux scored on the power play at 8:14 of the third, moving OTT’s win probability from 49% to 78%. Ville Husso allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:32 |  DET | Joe Veleno from Dominik Kubalik, Elmer Soderblom | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 12:47 |  OTT | Drake Batherson from Alex DeBrincat, Shane Pinto | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 14:56 | DET | Adam Erne from Jake Walman, Pius Suter | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 18:42 | OTT | Thomas ChabotPP from Alex DeBrincat, Brady Tkachuk | 2–2 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 1:40 | OTT | Drake BathersonPP from Brady Tkachuk, Alex DeBrincat | 3–2 | 48% → 66% |
| P2 12:14 | DET | Filip HronekPP from David Perron, Lucas Raymond | 3–3 | 36% → 54% |
| P3 8:14 | OTT | Claude GirouxPP unassisted | 4–3 | 49% → 78% |
| P3 12:48 | OTT | Tyler MotteSH from Parker Kelly | 5–3 | 82% → 97% |
| P3 16:49 | OTT | Austin WatsonEN from Claude Giroux | 6–3 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Batherson R | 18:06 | 2 | +1.85 | +0.40 | +1.65 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Claude Giroux R | 19:00 | 1 | 1 | +1.18 | +0.43 | +0.67 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Thomas Chabot D | 21:58 | 1 | +1.05 | +0.44 | +0.61 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Motte C | 14:55 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.09 | +0.33 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Austin Watson L | 9:32 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 20:31 | +0.12 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 19:39 | +0.06 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 11:28 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Sanderson D | 20:01 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 14:15 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Rourke Chartier C | 13:01 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 18:40 | 3 | −0.09 | +0.35 | −0.64 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Kastelic C | 9:49 | −0.14 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 17:17 | 2 | −0.15 | +0.42 | −0.54 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nick Holden D | 19:05 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Gambrell C | 14:01 | −0.23 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Derick Brassard C | 13:23 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 12:35 | −0.42 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.38 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 59:04 | −0.20 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Veleno C | 11:36 | 1 | +0.97 | −0.06 | +0.86 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Hronek D | 23:36 | 1 | +0.83 | −0.13 | +0.77 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Erne L | 13:58 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.28 | +0.61 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Oesterle D | 15:04 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elmer Soderblom L | 12:23 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pius Suter C | 12:12 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jonatan Berggren R | 11:41 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Moritz Seider D | 19:48 | −0.19 | −0.31 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 16:57 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dominik Kubalik L | 19:39 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.04 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lucas Raymond L | 12:38 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.09 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Olli Maatta D | 17:01 | −0.30 | −0.31 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 14:18 | −0.31 | −0.12 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 22:02 | −0.43 | −0.07 | −0.32 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 13:48 | −0.43 | −0.30 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 20:58 | −0.46 | −0.07 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 18:11 | −0.51 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.38 | +0.00 | ||
| David Perron L | 17:36 | 1 | −0.57 | −0.08 | −0.51 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ville Husso G | 59:19 | −1.60 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.