ARI beat NYI 5–4. ARI lost the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Travis Boyd scored at 2:08 of the third, moving ARI’s win probability from 52% to 78%. Ilya Sorokin allowed 2.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:41 |  NYI | Sebastian Aho from Brock Nelson, Josh Bailey | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 13:33 | NYI | Mathew Barzal from Robin Salo, Oliver Wahlstrom | 2–0 | 64% → 78% |
| P1 19:16 |  ARI | Shayne Gostisbehere unassisted | 2–1 | 21% → 35% |
| P2 8:55 | ARI | Clayton Keller from Nick Schmaltz, Barrett Hayton | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 9:09 | ARI | Nick Bjugstad from Joshua Brown, Matias Maccelli | 2–3 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 17:45 | NYI | Noah Dobson unassisted | 3–3 | 24% → 47% |
| P3 2:08 | ARI | Travis Boyd from Jakob Chychrun, Nick Schmaltz | 3–4 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 14:49 | ARI | Clayton Keller from Nick Schmaltz, Jakob Chychrun | 3–5 | 88% → 99% |
| P3 18:21 | NYI | Anthony BeauvillierPP from Anders Lee, Oliver Wahlstrom | 4–5 | 0% → 6% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Aho D | 18:24 | 1 | +0.98 | −0.04 | +0.85 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 24:47 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.25 | +0.60 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathew Barzal C | 22:06 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.10 | +0.37 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 14:07 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.04 | +0.58 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Mayfield D | 19:53 | +0.05 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Parise L | 13:48 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 10:46 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.37 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.38 | +0.01 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 19:56 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.13 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 20:29 | −0.01 | +0.11 | −0.17 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 10:32 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Bailey R | 16:25 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Robin Salo D | 6:28 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Wahlstrom R | 12:04 | 2 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Romanov D | 20:45 | −0.20 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 11:37 | −0.34 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 12:22 | −0.45 | −0.25 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 18:19 | −0.49 | −0.18 | −0.14 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 19:36 | 1 | −0.82 | +0.16 | −0.76 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 57:36 | −2.08 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Keller R | 22:52 | 2 | +1.83 | +0.25 | +1.39 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 18:50 | 1 | +1.15 | +0.33 | +0.80 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Boyd C | 18:50 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.20 | +0.48 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Bjugstad C | 18:28 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.06 | +0.45 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 20:06 | 3 | +0.38 | +0.43 | −0.13 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 18:07 | +0.04 | −0.32 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.38 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 17:43 | 2 | −0.00 | +0.32 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joshua Brown D | 18:19 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Juuso Välimäki D | 9:04 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 22:31 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 13:44 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 13:13 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matias Maccelli L | 14:23 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Liam O'Brien C | 7:41 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 13:37 | −0.18 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 13:37 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 15:02 | −0.37 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Ritchie L | 13:53 | −0.55 | +0.15 | −0.49 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 60:00 | −0.78 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.