STL beat CGY 5–2. STL lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jordan Kyrou scored on the power play at 3:08 of the second, moving STL’s win probability from 48% to 66%. Jacob Markstrom allowed 2.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:07 | STL | Ivan Barbashev from Robert Thomas | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 16:01 | CGY | Connor Mackey from Dillon Dube, Elias Lindholm | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 3:08 | STL | Jordan KyrouPP from Brayden Schenn, Pavel Buchnevich | 2–1 | 48% → 66% |
| P3 3:46 | STL | Pavel Buchnevich from Brayden Schenn, Torey Krug | 3–1 | 75% → 92% |
| P3 7:40 | CGY | Connor Mackey from Dillon Dube, Elias Lindholm | 3–2 | 6% → 22% |
| P3 8:58 | STL | Brandon Saad unassisted | 4–2 | 79% → 95% |
| P3 9:59 | STL | Jordan Kyrou from Robert Thomas, Ivan Barbashev | 5–2 | 96% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Kyrou R | 15:05 | 2 | +1.32 | +0.05 | +1.25 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brandon Saad L | 17:51 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.08 | +0.70 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 16:24 | 1 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.04 | +0.74 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 18:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.10 | +0.59 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Robert Thomas C | 16:10 | 2 | +0.03 | +0.08 | −0.37 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.07 | |
| Niko Mikkola D | 14:16 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 27:20 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 8:32 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 24:08 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 9:06 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 16:57 | −0.12 | −0.19 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Josh Leivo L | 13:01 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 16:24 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Torey Krug D | 16:48 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.13 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Faulk D | 21:24 | −0.20 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 13:30 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 16:30 | 2 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noel Acciari C | 11:42 | −0.33 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thomas Greiss G | 60:00 | +1.87 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Mackey D | 12:05 | 2 | +1.65 | +0.07 | +1.59 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 23:29 | +0.21 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Ruzicka C | 9:57 | +0.19 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 21:58 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Stone D | 11:14 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 18:22 | −0.04 | +0.09 | −0.18 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 17:32 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 18:46 | 2 | −0.08 | +0.15 | −0.39 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Nikita Zadorov D | 22:40 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radim Zohorna L | 7:06 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 13:54 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 23:28 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 8:47 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 19:44 | −0.24 | +0.06 | −0.45 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.07 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 17:41 | −0.27 | +0.22 | −0.52 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dillon Dube C | 18:06 | 2 | −0.35 | +0.05 | −0.34 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 16:13 | −0.35 | −0.06 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 15:42 | −0.71 | +0.04 | −0.55 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 60:00 | −2.44 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.