MIN beat DET 4–1. MIN lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 2.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Frederick Gaudreau scored on the power play at 14:37 of the first, moving MIN’s win probability from 54% to 71%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:37 | MIN | Frederick GaudreauPP from Sam Steel, Jared Spurgeon | 0–1 | 54% → 71% |
| P2 8:02 | MIN | Mathew Dumba from Jordan Greenway, Joel Eriksson Ek | 0–2 | 73% → 88% |
| P2 18:41 | DET | Elmer Soderblom from Adam Erne | 1–2 | 9% → 23% |
| P2 18:57 | MIN | Mats Zuccarello from Kirill Kaprizov | 1–3 | 77% → 91% |
| P3 19:18 | MIN | Frederick GaudreauEN from Marcus Foligno | 1–4 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elmer Soderblom L | 10:57 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.03 | +0.35 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Erne L | 16:02 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Moritz Seider D | 29:31 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 14:33 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 23:42 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 1:18 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonatan Berggren R | 12:48 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 22:41 | −0.06 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 15:54 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 14:28 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Lindstrom D | 15:34 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Kubalik L | 14:15 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Czarnik C | 9:59 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| David Perron L | 17:39 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 17:20 | −0.27 | −0.07 | −0.13 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Lucas Raymond L | 16:18 | −0.31 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 18:15 | −0.32 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Jordan Oesterle D | 22:58 | −0.34 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Magnus Hellberg G | 57:55 | −0.54 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathew Dumba D | 21:45 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.01 | +0.41 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 13:07 | 2 | +0.23 | +0.07 | +0.23 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Reaves R | 9:56 | +0.20 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sammy Walker C | 6:32 | +0.18 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 19:28 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.05 | −0.08 | +0.21 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jonas Brodin D | 21:52 | +0.15 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 20:18 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.09 | −0.17 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jared Spurgeon D | 21:31 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.16 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 19:59 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.08 | +0.25 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Greenway L | 16:29 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.14 | −0.07 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Dewar C | 12:47 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mason Shaw C | 12:54 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 18:21 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jon Merrill D | 14:33 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 12:49 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 18:22 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.12 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Calen Addison D | 15:08 | −0.19 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 18:34 | −0.19 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 59:35 | +0.61 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.