BOS beat NYI 4–3 in a shootout. BOS also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Casey Cizikas scored at 4:40 of the third, moving NYI’s win probability from 21% to 48%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:48 | BOS | Jake DeBruskPP from David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 7:07 | BOS | Jake DeBrusk from Taylor Hall, Pavel Zacha | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P1 11:00 |  NYI | Josh Bailey from Noah Dobson, Brock Nelson | 1–2 | 17% → 30% |
| P2 11:43 | NYI | Noah Dobson from Josh Bailey, Brock Nelson | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 18:28 | BOS | Derek ForbortSH from Pavel Zacha, Jake DeBrusk | 2–3 | 52% → 76% |
| P3 4:40 | NYI | Casey Cizikas from Sebastian Aho | 3–3 | 21% → 48% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Dobson D | 20:45 | 1 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.41 | +0.46 | +0.22 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Casey Cizikas C | 13:26 | 1 | +0.32 | −0.02 | +0.42 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | |
| Mathew Barzal C | 20:56 | +0.26 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +0.65 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 16:17 | +0.13 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Robin Salo D | 7:45 | +0.05 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho D | 24:26 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.24 | −0.06 | +0.30 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Hudson Fasching R | 9:16 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 14:09 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 25:15 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Wahlstrom R | 10:15 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 24:27 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.15 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 11:16 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Josh Bailey R | 18:08 | 1 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.23 | +0.41 | +0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.51 |
| Ryan Pulock D | 18:43 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 21:34 | 2 | −0.34 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.39 | |
| Zach Parise L | 17:15 | −0.36 | +0.05 | −0.17 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 19:30 | −0.58 | −0.28 | −0.20 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 19:23 | −0.75 | −0.40 | −0.32 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov G | 65:00 | −0.46 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake DeBrusk L | 16:47 | 2 | 1 | +1.21 | +0.27 | +0.56 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.59 |
| David Pastrnak R | 22:01 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.39 | −0.43 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.99 | |
| Derek Forbort D | 20:30 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.06 | +0.85 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 18:04 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.45 | −0.09 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Charlie McAvoy D | 23:47 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.41 | −0.12 | −0.14 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Zacha C | 16:43 | 2 | +0.06 | +0.16 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | |
| Connor Clifton D | 21:40 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 13:44 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 24:09 | −0.05 | +0.16 | −0.05 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 16:21 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 12:51 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brad Marchand L | 18:41 | −0.13 | +0.10 | −0.13 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Patrice Bergeron C | 18:12 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.12 | −0.09 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.00 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 9:17 | −0.20 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 11:43 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 18:21 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.10 | −0.33 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 18:30 | −0.34 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 7:54 | −0.37 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 67:41 | −0.25 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.