NYR beat NJD 4–3 in overtime. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Filip Chytil scored at 2:15 of overtime, moving NYR’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Vitek Vanecek allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:05 | NJD | Nico Hischier from Jonas Siegenthaler | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 4:46 | NJD | Dawson Mercer unassisted | 2–0 | 63% → 75% |
| P1 18:25 | NYR | Chris Kreider from Vincent Trocheck, Jimmy Vesey | 2–1 | 20% → 35% |
| P2 11:05 | NJD | Jack Hughes from Dawson Mercer, Dougie Hamilton | 3–1 | 69% → 85% |
| P2 13:58 | NYR | Vincent TrocheckPP from Adam Fox, Mika Zibanejad | 3–2 | 14% → 30% |
| P2 14:05 | NYR | Kaapo Kakko from K'Andre Miller, Filip Chytil | 3–3 | 30% → 53% |
| OT 2:15 | NYR | Filip Chytil from Artemi Panarin, K'Andre Miller | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hischier C | 22:17 | 1 | +0.87 | −0.08 | +0.92 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Dawson Mercer C | 20:12 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.16 | +0.63 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jack Hughes C | 22:01 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.05 | +0.18 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Smith D | 15:13 | +0.20 | +0.24 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McLeod C | 15:43 | +0.13 | +0.02 | −0.37 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.38 | +0.10 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 21:43 | +0.11 | +0.29 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 17:12 | +0.07 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 15:03 | +0.05 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 19:53 | +0.02 | +0.22 | −0.23 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Holtz R | 4:14 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 19:21 | −0.08 | +0.19 | −0.28 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 17:35 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 24:02 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Marino D | 19:08 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 5:44 | −0.19 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 3:31 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 18:51 | −0.22 | +0.17 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 21:02 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Vitek Vanecek G | 61:44 | −2.20 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Kreider L | 18:34 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.09 | +0.62 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kaapo Kakko R | 14:59 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.16 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Chytil C | 14:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.13 | +0.50 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Vincent Trocheck C | 20:04 | 1 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.23 | +0.69 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Adam Fox D | 24:18 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.12 | −0.15 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Barclay Goodrow C | 15:34 | +0.11 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 18:41 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 19:47 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.11 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Braden Schneider D | 17:50 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 14:34 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 16:01 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sammy Blais L | 8:13 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Julien Gauthier R | 8:45 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 19:23 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.15 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| K'Andre Miller D | 25:04 | 2 | −0.21 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Lindgren D | 21:47 | −0.22 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Libor Hajek D | 12:24 | −0.24 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 9:58 | −0.31 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 62:15 | +0.09 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.