ARI beat PHI 5–4 in overtime. ARI lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 4.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Clayton Keller scored at 4:37 of overtime, moving ARI’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Carter Hart allowed 2.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:46 |  ARI | Clayton KellerPP from J.J. Moser, Nick Ritchie | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P2 2:09 |  PHI | Morgan Frost from James van Riemsdyk, Owen Tippett | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 4:08 | PHI | James van Riemsdyk from Morgan Frost | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 7:45 | ARI | Clayton Keller from Nick Schmaltz, Travis Boyd | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 10:21 | ARI | Jack McBain from J.J. Moser, Liam O'Brien | 2–3 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 18:42 | PHI | Owen Tippett from James van Riemsdyk, Morgan Frost | 3–3 | 23% → 47% |
| P3 7:27 | ARI | Nick Ritchie unassisted | 3–4 | 52% → 81% |
| P3 17:43 | PHI | Travis KonecnyPP from Morgan Frost, James van Riemsdyk | 4–4 | 8% → 50% |
| OT 4:37 | ARI | Clayton Keller from Jakob Chychrun, Nick Schmaltz | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James van Riemsdyk L | 19:59 | 1 | 3 | +1.02 | +0.47 | +0.52 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Morgan Frost C | 20:14 | 1 | 3 | +0.83 | +0.27 | +0.54 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Owen Tippett R | 17:39 | 1 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.21 | +0.57 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Travis Konecny R | 21:55 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.19 | +0.36 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Cam York D | 24:08 | +0.44 | +0.44 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 27:42 | +0.12 | +0.32 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack MacEwen C | 12:20 | +0.10 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 11:59 | +0.08 | +0.12 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Braun D | 15:16 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Brown C | 8:20 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 7:38 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 24:50 | −0.08 | +0.10 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 21:35 | −0.09 | +0.16 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 19:30 | −0.13 | +0.32 | −0.40 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 11:03 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 16:30 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Lukas Sedlak C | 10:57 | −0.33 | +0.04 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 18:31 | −0.34 | +0.23 | −0.57 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 64:25 | −2.49 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Keller R | 23:42 | 3 | +2.18 | −0.04 | +2.25 | +0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack McBain C | 17:22 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.08 | +0.78 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nick Ritchie L | 9:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.07 | +0.58 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Joshua Brown D | 15:41 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 19:21 | 2 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 16:12 | 2 | −0.04 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Barrett Hayton C | 12:48 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Juuso Välimäki D | 10:32 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 18:24 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Travis Boyd C | 14:48 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Patrik Nemeth D | 13:49 | −0.25 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 17:17 | −0.27 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 17:02 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.09 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Troy Stecher D | 15:31 | −0.45 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 25:27 | −0.46 | −0.34 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 18:46 | −0.54 | −0.54 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 23:22 | 1 | −0.60 | −0.14 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 18:00 | −0.71 | −0.31 | −0.41 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 64:35 | +0.01 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.