COL beat STL 3–2 in overtime. COL also won the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Mikko Rantanen scored at 0:29 of overtime, moving COL’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 10:58 | COL | Mikko Rantanen from Alex Newhook, Brad Hunt | 1–0 | 47% → 69% |
| P3 8:01 | STL | Vladimir TarasenkoPP from Ryan O'Reilly, Robert Thomas | 1–1 | 23% → 53% |
| P3 18:24 | STL | Brandon SaadSH unassisted | 1–2 | 49% → 94% |
| P3 19:51 | COL | Mikko RantanenPP from J.T. Compher, Devon Toews | 2–2 | 3% → 49% |
| OT 0:29 | COL | Mikko Rantanen from Cale Makar, Valeri Nichushkin | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikko Rantanen R | 22:04 | 3 | +2.25 | +0.07 | +1.95 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Samuel Girard D | 21:02 | +0.14 | +0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 22:57 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.01 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Meyers C | 11:47 | +0.08 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 18:05 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dryden Hunt L | 4:10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob MacDonald D | 4:29 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Hunt D | 10:57 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andreas Englund D | 15:01 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charles Hudon L | 13:13 | −0.08 | +0.07 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 16:04 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 25:09 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.12 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jean-Luc Foudy C | 11:23 | −0.14 | +0.14 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 20:20 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 14:40 | −0.20 | +0.06 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 26:13 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.14 | −0.49 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Newhook C | 15:14 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.05 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.04 | |
| J.T. Compher L | 23:40 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.20 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pavel Francouz G | 59:19 | +0.22 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Saad L | 16:40 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.10 | +0.58 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 18:25 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.33 | +0.62 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Noel Acciari C | 15:50 | +0.13 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.10 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 13:24 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Bitten C | 5:09 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Leivo L | 16:07 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Pitlick C | 8:53 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 5:11 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 19:57 | −0.06 | +0.09 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 15:24 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 16:43 | −0.09 | +0.10 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 22:53 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 20:44 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Robert Thomas C | 17:49 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 16:52 | −0.30 | −0.16 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 23:30 | −0.40 | −0.15 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Torey Krug D | 20:53 | −0.50 | −0.12 | −0.39 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 21:03 | −0.62 | −0.13 | −0.28 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 60:29 | +0.01 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.