MIN beat VAN 3–0. MIN also won the expected-goals battle 4.0 to 3.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Matt Boldy scored on the power play at 16:43 of the first, moving MIN’s win probability from 48% to 65%. Filip Gustavsson saved 3.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:43 | MIN | Matt BoldyPP from Mats Zuccarello, Calen Addison | 1–0 | 48% → 65% |
| P2 16:08 | MIN | Connor DewarSH unassisted | 2–0 | 70% → 87% |
| P3 8:51 | MIN | Sam Steel from Mats Zuccarello | 3–0 | 95% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Dewar C | 12:37 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.07 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Sam Steel C | 19:15 | 1 | +0.34 | −0.01 | +0.51 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.07 | |
| Sammy Walker C | 9:54 | +0.21 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 12:11 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Brodin D | 21:36 | +0.09 | +0.16 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Shaw C | 10:36 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calen Addison D | 14:07 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jared Spurgeon D | 24:34 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 14:38 | −0.00 | +0.17 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 12:38 | −0.01 | +0.11 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 21:10 | −0.04 | +0.07 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 11:35 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 22:25 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 18:02 | −0.21 | +0.08 | −0.30 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 18:29 | 2 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.24 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jon Merrill D | 14:43 | −0.24 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 19:37 | −0.29 | −0.08 | −0.25 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 15:53 | −0.36 | +0.14 | −0.49 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 60:00 | +3.27 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nils Aman C | 10:01 | +0.20 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 19:40 | +0.13 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 14:19 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 25:02 | +0.01 | +0.07 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Stillman D | 13:57 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Hoglander L | 10:50 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 17:46 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.39 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 15:50 | −0.17 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 9:37 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Studnicka C | 13:06 | −0.23 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Ethan Bear D | 18:05 | −0.24 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 16:13 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 18:06 | −0.25 | +0.06 | −0.34 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 18:13 | −0.29 | −0.21 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 21:48 | −0.47 | −0.21 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 18:10 | −0.52 | −0.10 | −0.42 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Elias Pettersson C | 18:13 | −0.65 | −0.11 | −0.59 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 19:23 | −0.66 | −0.10 | −0.52 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Martin G | 59:33 | +0.51 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.