ARI beat BOS 4–3. ARI lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 5.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Lawson Crouse scored at 19:46 of the third, moving ARI’s win probability from 51% to 97%. Karel Vejmelka saved 2.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:23 |  ARI | Joshua Brown from Matias Maccelli, Lawson Crouse | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 4:52 |  BOS | David PastrnakPP from Charlie McAvoy | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P2 7:48 | BOS | Charlie Coyle from Jake DeBrusk | 2–1 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 10:40 | ARI | Lawson Crouse from Shayne Gostisbehere, Jakob Chychrun | 2–2 | 31% → 53% |
| P3 0:53 | ARI | Nick Schmaltz from Clayton Keller, Shayne Gostisbehere | 2–3 | 52% → 77% |
| P3 14:31 | BOS | Nick FolignoPP from David Krejci, Hampus Lindholm | 3–3 | 13% → 49% |
| P3 19:46 | ARI | Lawson Crouse from Matias Maccelli | 3–4 | 51% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Coyle C | 16:26 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.03 | +0.66 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.06 | |
| Nick Foligno L | 10:38 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.21 | +0.56 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Charlie McAvoy D | 24:23 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.33 | −0.08 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Krejci C | 15:12 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.22 | −0.05 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Zacha C | 16:41 | +0.14 | +0.25 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Forbort D | 16:40 | +0.13 | +0.16 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrice Bergeron C | 18:17 | +0.12 | +0.24 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | ||
| David Pastrnak R | 22:16 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.18 | −0.15 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Hampus Lindholm D | 23:06 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.38 | −0.38 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Craig Smith C | 8:00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake DeBrusk L | 16:30 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.20 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Clifton D | 14:47 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 10:06 | −0.08 | +0.13 | −0.39 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 15:15 | −0.09 | +0.16 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 15:57 | −0.14 | +0.25 | −0.41 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 10:26 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 18:21 | −0.25 | +0.14 | −0.45 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Marchand L | 19:40 | −0.27 | +0.34 | −0.43 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman G | 59:19 | −1.84 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lawson Crouse L | 21:43 | 2 | 1 | +1.31 | −0.21 | +1.51 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Joshua Brown D | 18:42 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.36 | +0.81 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 12:31 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.02 | +0.78 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Juuso Välimäki D | 8:37 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 10:21 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 17:28 | 2 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Troy Stecher D | 14:47 | −0.14 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Boyd C | 16:06 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 20:35 | −0.15 | −0.34 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 12:10 | −0.20 | −0.07 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 20:14 | 2 | −0.21 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Fischer R | 16:46 | −0.34 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 14:38 | −0.38 | −0.24 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 17:49 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.06 | −0.50 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Nick Ritchie L | 12:28 | −0.43 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 18:49 | −0.44 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.11 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 14:34 | −0.57 | −0.38 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 22:02 | 1 | −0.59 | −0.22 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 60:00 | +1.99 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.